石油设备网讯 据RIGZONE网3月11日消息 随着美国页岩油的蓬勃发展，欧佩克的市场力量将持续丧失直至2025年左右。
国际能源署表示，到2024年，由于伊朗和委内瑞拉的石油产量下降，欧佩克的原油开采能力实际上将会缩减。随着竞争对手的增加，在此期间，全球每年从欧佩克获得的石油需求不会恢复到2016年以前的水平，即欧佩克开始减产之前。
对于欧佩克来说，该报告可能是一个发人深省的数据。过去两年，欧佩克一直在限制产量，以避免全球供应过剩，从而压低油价。虽然减产基本上达到了这些目标，但也激活了美国页岩油的发展，使该国成为全球最大的原油生产国。
国际能源署执行主任Fatih Birol周一在休斯顿的CERAWeek能源会议上表示：“美国页岩气革命的第二波浪潮即将来临。这将动摇国际油气贸易流动，对地缘政治产生深远影响。”
总部位于巴黎的国际能源署在其中期报告中表示，美国的能源扩张将继续进行，到2024年，美国将占全球产能增长的70%。该机构表示，到那时，该国可能每天出口900万桶石油，超过俄罗斯的出口能力，接近沙特阿拉伯。
由于美国的供应增长将得到巴西、挪威和圭亚那的补充，国际能源署大幅上调了对欧佩克以外国家新原油的预测，预计到2024年将达到每日330万桶。
因此，欧佩克14个成员国对石油需求的估计被大幅下调。到2024年，全球对欧佩克原油的需求仍将低于减产前的水平。IEA表示，欧佩克将需要在未来10年继续维持目前的产量限制。
吴慧丹 摘译自 RIGZONE
原文如下：
OPEC Will Be Squeezed by US Shale Until Mid-2020s
OPEC’s loss of market power to what was once its biggest customer will continue until the middle of the next decade as U.S. shale oil thrives.
By 2024, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ capacity to pump crude will actually shrink because of declines in Iran and Venezuela, according to the International Energy Agency. As rivals grow, the amount of oil the world needs from the cartel each year won’t recover to pre-2016 levels -- before OPEC started cutting production -- throughout the period.
The report may be sobering reading for OPEC, which has capped its production for the past two years to stave off a global glut that would depress prices. Although its cutbacks have mostly achieved those aims, they’ve also invigorated the shale-oil boom in the U.S., helping the country become the world’s biggest crude producer.
“The second wave of the U.S. shale revolution is coming,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director said on Monday at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston. “This will shake up international oil and gas trade flows, with profound implications for geopolitics.”
America’s energy expansion will proceed, accounting for 70 percent of the growth in global production capacity through to 2024, the Paris-based IEA said in its medium-term report. By that time, the nation could be able to export 9 million barrels a day, exceeding the export capabilities of Russia and coming close to those of Saudi Arabia, the agency said.
With U.S. supply growth to be supplemented by Brazil, Norway and Guyana, the IEA substantially raised forecasts for new crude from outside OPEC, by as much as 3.3 million barrels a day by 2024.
As a result, estimates for the oil needed from OPEC’s 14 members were slashed. By 2024, the world will still need less crude from the group than it was pumping before production cuts started. That suggests that OPEC will need to persist with its current output restraints into the next decade, the IEA said.
