石油设备网讯 据World Oil网华盛顿3月12日消息 2019年度能源展望(AEO2019)参考案例显示，在 Marcellus和Utica地区，大西洋中部和俄亥俄州的天然气产量持续增长，导致天然气输送到中西部东部，最终进入中南部地区，其中包括墨西哥湾沿岸和德克萨斯州。
虽然南中部地区本身包含生产天然气的页岩气，例如二叠纪盆地的Wolfcamp和Haynesville，但该地区的天然气消耗量超过了参考案例中的产量，需要从其他地区供应额外的天然气供应该区域内的需求增长以及将天然气出口到其他国家的液化设施。
东部干页岩天然气产量占这一增长的一半以上，因为在预测期内产量增加了一倍多，从2017年的24亿立方英尺增加到参考案例中的2050年的50亿立方英尺。
美国液化天然气出口量的增长是这一增长的主要因素，因为预计到2020年底美国液化天然气出口量将从5亿立方英尺增加到11亿立方英尺。
AEO2019的预测趋势延续了最近的趋势逆转，即天然气从中南部地区——包括德克萨斯州和墨西哥湾沿岸——传统上通过中西部东部或东南部地区进入东北部的人口中心。2008年，流入东北地区的资金平均为12亿美元。然而，到2013年，这一数字已降至5个价差合约。如今，该地区已成为天然气净出口国，主要向美国中西部东部出口天然气。
EIA估计，从2008年到2018年，东北地区(包括大西洋中部、俄亥俄地区和新英格兰地区)的管道容量从5亿立方英尺增加到23亿立方英尺。
吴慧丹 摘译自 World Oil
原文如下：
EIA: Increases in natural gas production from Appalachia affect natural gas flows
The 2019 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO2019) Reference case shows continued growth of natural gas production in the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio region from the Marcellus and Utica formations, resulting in increases of natural gas being transported to the Eastern Midwest and, ultimately, into the South Central region, which includes the Gulf Coast and Texas.
While the South Central region itself contains shale plays that produce natural gas, such as the Wolfcamp in the Permian basin and the Haynesville, natural gas consumption in the region outpaces production in the Reference case, requiring additional supplies of natural gas from other regions to meet growing demand both within the region and for liquefaction facilities that would export natural gas to other countries.
Dry shale natural gas production in the East accounts for over half of this growth as production more than doubles during the projection period from 24 Bcfd in 2017 to 50 Bcfd in 2050 in the Reference case.
Growing U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export volumes are the main contributor to this growth as U.S. LNG export capacity is expected to double from 5 Bcfd to 11 Bcfd by the end of 2020.
This AEO2019 forecast trend continues the recent reversal of past flows, where natural gas from the South Central region—which includes Texas and the Gulf Coast—traditionally moved into population centers in the Northeast through either the Eastern Midwest or Southeast regions. In 2008, flows into the Northeast averaged 12 Bcfd. However, by 2013, these volumes had dropped to 5 Bcfd, and today the region is a net natural gas exporter, primarily to the Eastern Midwest.
From 2008 to 2018, pipeline capacity out of the Northeast, which includes both the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio region and New England, grew from 5 Bcfd to 23 Bcfd, as estimated by EIA.
