石油设备网讯 据普氏能源资讯2019年3月29日伦敦报道，标普全球普氏能源资讯最近对顶级银行和石油经纪人进行的一次调查结果显示，布伦特原油在2019年将很有可能保持停滞状态，其平均价格将接近67美元/桶。由于欧佩克减产和美国行动抵消美国今年晚些时候新的供应，石油市场的平衡依然很脆弱。
由于页岩和大型石油公司的生产前景强劲，对近月现货布伦特原油的普遍预测已从上季度调查时的每桶75.5美元有所下降。预计这种趋势将持续到2020年，普氏调查的对象预计明年布伦特原油的平均价格将在每桶68美元左右。
自去年底油价在沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯为应对冲击影响打开石油供应阀门以后跌至每桶50美元左右的低点以来，油价已回升至略低于每桶70美元的水平。但美国最终向8个国家提供了豁免，令欧佩克及其盟友措手不及。这些国家一直坚持减产协议并将在6月就他们的市场管理战略再次发出呼吁。
美国页岩产量也在上升。
汇丰(HSBC)在一份研究报告中写道：“雪佛龙公司和埃克森美孚公司的战略更新凸显出，得益于生产率的提高和活动的增加，这两家公司的二叠纪探区的页岩产量增将长更为强劲。”
李峻 编译自 Platts
原文如下：
Oil prices to average $67/b in 2019, fragile balance to market: Platts survey
Brent crude will likely stay in a holding pattern and average close to $67/b in 2019, but the balance remains fragile as OPEC's production cuts and sanctions on Iran and Venezuela offset new US supply later this year, according to top banks and oil brokers surveyed by S&P Global Platts.
The consensus forecast for front-month spot Brent has fallen from $75.50/b in the survey in the previous quarter on a strong production outlook for shale and the oil majors. The trend is seen continuing into 2020, with the panel predicting an average of around $68/b for Brent next year.
Oil prices have recovered to just shy of $70/b since dipping to a low of around $50/b at the end of last year, after Saudi Arabia and Russia turned on the taps to prevent any supply shock from the impact of US sanctions imposed on Iran in November. But the US ended up providing waivers to eight countries, wrong-footing OPEC and its allies, which have stuck to their production cut deal and will next make a call on their market management strategy in June.
US shale output is also on the rise.
"Strategy updates from Chevron and Exxon highlighted stronger upside from their Permian acreage thanks to better productivity and higher activity," HSBC wrote in a research note.
