据普氏能源资讯4月18日伦敦报道，据S＆P Global Platts统计，市场参与者表示，尽管目前的价格波动可能会进一步持续，但由于亚洲需求增强，预计今年夏季欧洲天然气价格仍将高于欧洲天然气价格。
普拉茨调查的交易员和分析师一致认为，最近JKM日韩标杆指数亚洲价格和荷兰天然气TTF从折价转为溢价是“回归正常”。
“这与JKM价格不可持续有很大关系，”普氏能源资讯亚洲液化天然气分析经理Jeff Moore表示。
“JKM必须走得更高，否则所有目的地灵活的货物都将流向欧洲，这将使亚洲短缺，”他补充说，指出最近欧洲天然气价格飙升，因为对挪威供应的担忧。
普氏能源资讯数据显示，JKM-TTF现货差价自3月20日以来一直处于负值，并在4月5日达到最大折扣，为0.932美元/MMBtu。
但JKM最终在4月9日开始反弹，并在一周后达到6美元/MMBtu的峰值，将TTF的价差推高至1美元/ MMBtu溢价。
上周当市场意识到价格触底反弹时，JKM价格上涨，但也受到亚洲反季节需求回升的影响。
“亚洲的需求高于供应，根据定义意味着该地区将不得不从其他地区提取货物，”摩尔说。
总部位于瑞士的一家公司的一位交易员表示：“实物平衡显然表明上涨而不是下行：供应增加，但亚洲的需求增长更多。”
市场参与者表示，尽管目前的价格波动可能会进一步持续，但由于亚洲需求增强，预计今年夏季欧洲天然气价格仍将高于欧洲天然气价格。
【编者注】
JKM（Japan-Korean Marker）为普氏日韩标杆指数，TTF（Title Transfer Facility）为荷兰产权转让设施指数 二者皆为天然气市场区域性定价基准。格式为**美元/百万英热单位（$*/MMBtu）
薛珂 摘译自 普氏能源资讯
原文如下：
JKM-TTF premium, volatility seen persisting this summer: analysts
London—Asian prices are expected to remain at a premium to the European gas hubs this summer on firmer Asian demand, although the current price volatility could persist further, according to market participants pooled by S&P Global Platts.
Traders and analysts polled by Platts agreed that the recent Platts JKM Asian price and Dutch gas TTF shift from discount to premium is a "reversion back to normal."
"It simply has more to do with the fact that [JKM] prices were unsustainable," said Jeff Moore, manager of Asian LNG Analytics at Platts.
"JKM had to come higher or else all destination-flexible cargoes would have gone to Europe, which would have left Asia short," he added, pointing to the recent European gas price spike on the back of concerns on Norwegian supplies.
The JKM-TTF spot spread had been in the negative since March 20, and hit its largest discount in years on April 5 at $0.932/MMBtu, Platts data show.
But the JKM eventually rebounded starting April 9 and peaked a week later at $6/MMBtu, pushing the spread against TTF to a $1/MMBtu premium.
JKM prices rallied last week when the market realized the price had bottomed out, but also on the back of Asian counter-seasonal demand picking up.
"Demand in Asia is higher than supply, which by definition means that the region will have to pull cargoes from other regions," Moore said.
A trader at a Switzerland-based company said: "The physical balances are clearly suggesting more upside than downside: supply is up, but demand [in Asia] is up even more."
