石油设备网讯 据离岸工程4月18日消息称，Wood Mackenzie在一份报告中说，随着能源转型的迫近，石油公司开始依赖天然气的原因之一是，天然气储量丰富，未来的需求增长速度超过石油，而且天然气的碳排放强度相对较低。
液化天然气市场势将繁荣，但目前的价格正在暴跌——报告解释了这一矛盾。
全球天然气研究部负责人Massimo Di-Odoardo在报告中表示：“我们刚刚摆脱了需求激增吸收新供应的强劲两年。今年新增的天然气供应量达到创纪录的3800万吨，增幅12%，所以2019年将一直很困难。”
亚洲液化天然气价格从10月份的11美元/ mmbtu下跌至5月份的4.5美元/ mmbtu。目前，它们的交易价格较欧洲价格有罕见的折让。俄罗斯和挪威对欧洲的天然气管道出口保持强劲，今年夏天欧洲的液化天然气进口可能会增加，原因是亚洲季节性需求下降，供应增加。
美国液化天然气进入欧洲的买家的现金成本位于曲线的顶部，从3.5美元/ mmbtu到4.00美元/mmbtu不等。如果价格跌破这一水平，我们可能会看到一些发货量减少。但短期经济并不是唯一的驱动力。
他说：“未来几年我们将看到美国销量的大幅增长。卖方希望向未来的买家证明长期美国液化天然气合同的价值。停业会发出错误的信号。”
该报告称三年内价格将翻番。从2021年开始，供应量增加显着放缓，然后在2023年之后新的交易量出现了大幅度的差距。一些新项目需要高达7美元/ mmbtu以达到收支平衡。
从FID到调试，新液化天然气供应的平均时间约为五年，因此投资者需要开始建设。加拿大液化天然气公司（壳牌）、Tortue（BP）和Golden Pass（埃克森美孚/卡塔尔石油公司）在过去几个月中获得了批准。
未来还会有更多的FID，这将使新项目的总投资超过2000亿美元，并在2020年代中期每年为市场带来超过1亿吨的新液化天然气供应。
曹海斌 摘译自 离岸工程
原文如下：
LNG Oversupply to Turn into a Shortfall
Among the reasons oil companies are latching onto gas as the energy transition looms are that it’s plentiful, future demand growth outstrips oil and it has relatively low carbon intensity, said Wood Mackenzie in a report.
LNG market is set to flourish, yet prices today are collapsing - the report explains this contradiction.
Massimo Di-Odoardo, Head of Global Gas Research said in the report: "We’ve just come off the back of two strong years when surging demand growth absorbed new supply. A record 38 Mt, or 12%, of additional LNG supply comes on stream this year, so 2019 was always going to be difficult."
Asian LNG prices have slumped from over US$11/mmbtu in October to US$4.5/mmbtu for May delivery. Right now, they are trading at a rare discount to European prices. Russian and Norwegian pipeline exports to Europe have held strong, and LNG imports to Europe are likely to increase this summer because of lower seasonal Asian demand and more supply coming on stream.
Cash costs for buyers of US LNG into Europe are at the top of the curve, ranging from US$3.50 to US$4.00/mmbtu. If prices dip below that, we could see some shipments curtailed. But short-term economics aren’t the only driver.
"We’re going to see huge growth in US volumes in coming years. Sellers want to prove to future buyers the merits of long-term US LNG contracts. Shut-ins would send the wrong signal," he said.
The report said that prices will double inside three years. Supply additions slow dramatically from 2021, then a yawning gap opens for new volumes post-2023. Some new projects need upward of US$7/mmbtu to break even.
The lead time for new LNG supply is about five years on average from FID to commissioning so investors need to start building. LNG Canada (Shell), Tortue (BP) and Golden Pass (ExxonMobil/Qatar Petroleum) got the green light in the last few months.
A host more FIDs are coming that will lift total investment in new projects to over US$200 billion, and bring over 100 mmtpa of new LNG supply to the market by the mid-2020s.
