石油设备网讯 据彭博社莫斯科报道，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（俄气/ Gazprom）基于温暖的天气和俄罗斯管道超冷燃料的竞争日益加剧，预测其2019年的天然气产量前景保守。
该公司副首席执行官 Vitaly Markelov 在接受内部出版物采访时重申了该公司高管2月份做出的保守预测：“我们计划今年生产4950亿立方米天然气。”
该产量将标志着俄气5年来首次减产，其2018年的天然气产量为4976亿立方米。俄气根据其最大的市场——欧洲的需求，每年数次修订其产出计划，由于去年冬季较为温暖，该地区天然气消耗量相比之下有所减少，目前储存了大量的天然气。
俄气上周估计，欧洲的天然气储存设施已满42%，并表示，补充库存的采购将大大低于往年。从1月1日到4月15日，俄气的天然气产量同比增长了2%，但其对欧洲和土耳其的出口却下降了9%。
VTB资本石油和天然气分析师Ekaterina Rodina说，向欧洲涌入的液化天然气供应增加了压力。
尽管俄气传统上否认了美国液化天然气货物对其在欧洲地位的潜在影响，但该公司出口部门负责人Elena Burmistrova今年2月表示，北美对欧洲的液化天然气供应情况令该公司感到担忧。
此外，俄气还出乎意料地面临着来自国内竞争对手诺瓦泰克与其在欧洲市场的竞争。独立天然气生产商诺瓦泰克于2017年在北极的液化天然气工厂开始生产天然气，去年冬天，在亚洲LNG价格下跌后，它成为了欧洲西北地区超冷燃料的主要供应商。
詹晓晶摘自彭博社
原文如下：
Gazprom sees output falling as European gas demand declines
Gazprom PJSC forecasts a conservative natural gas production outlook for 2019, based on warm weather and growing competition from Russian-piped super-chilled fuel.
“We plan to produce 495 Bcm of gas this year,” deputy CEO Vitaly Markelov said in an interview to the in-house publication, reiterating a conservative forecast the company’s executives made in February.
That volume would mark Gazprom’s first drop in output in five years, from 497.6 Bcm in 2018. The energy company revises its output plans several times a year based on demand in Europe, its largest market. The region currently has plenty of gas in storage after a warm winter reduced consumption.
Gazprom last week estimated that European gas storage facilities are 42% full and said that purchases to replenish the stocks “will be significantly lower than in previous years.” While the company’s gas production from Jan. 1 through April 15 rose by 2% year on year, its exports to Europe and Turkey dropped 9%.
An influx of liquefied natural gas supplies to Europe is adding to the pressure, VTB Capital oil and gas analyst Ekaterina Rodina said.
While Gazprom has traditionally dismissed the potential impact of LNG cargoes from the U.S. on its position in Europe, Elena Burmistrova, head of Gazprom’s export arm, said this February that North American supplies are “worrisome.”
In addition, Gazprom has unexpectedly faced competition in Europe from a domestic rival, Novatek PJSC. The independent gas producer, which started output at its LNG facility in the Arctic in 2017, became a major supplier of the super-chilled fuel to northwestern Europe during the past winter after prices in Asia dropped.
