石油设备网讯 据普氏能源资讯2019年4月25日迪拜报道，国际能源署（IEA）周四表示，如果伊拉克能够获得足够的注水井用水，吸引足够的投资并保持安全和政治稳定，那么到2030年前，伊拉克可能成为世界第4大产油国。
根据国际能源署发布的一份报告，根据这些因素，伊拉克3月份的平均石油日产量为454万桶，预计未来10年将增至近600万桶。
这将使伊拉克在全球原油生产国排名上超过加拿大，这将是一个显著的增长。
IEA表示，这一增幅也将是未来10年全球新增供应的第三大增幅，仅次于美国和巴西。
IEA在其《伊拉克能源展望》报告中表示：“如果实现这一目标，伊拉克到2030年的石油产量将占全球石油产量的6%左右，高于目前的5%，2010年还不到3%。”
尽管如此，这还是比国际能源署2012年对伊拉克能源前景的上一次评估有所下调。2012年，国际能源署曾预测，到2030年，伊拉克的石油日产量将达到750万桶。
安全对于提高伊拉克的石油产量很重要，但从技术角度来看，确保充足的水供应将是至关重要的。伊拉克最大的产油省巴士拉省的大部分南部油田都是由国际石油公司根据技术服务合同运营的，这些合同要求伊拉克政府提供水来维持油井压力。
IEA估计，为了扩大产量，伊拉克将每天需要供应大约300万桶水，以满足储油层压力的需求。
李峻 编译自 Platts
原文如下：
Iraq needs a lot more water to fuel its oil growth ambitions: IEA
Iraq could become the world's fourth largest oil producer by 2030 -- if it can secure adequate water for well injection, attract sufficient investment and maintain safety and political stability, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.
Iraqi oil output, which averaged 4.54 million b/d in March, is expected to rise to nearly 6 million b/d over the next 10 years, contingent on those factors, according to a report released by the IEA.
That would allow Iraq to surpass Canada in the global crude producer rankings and would be a remarkable surge for a country that has been blessed with immense oil reserves.
The growth rate would also be the third largest increment of new global supply in the next 10 years, after the US and Brazil, the IEA said.
"If achieved, [Iraqi] production in 2030 would represent around 6% of global oil output, up from 5% now and less than 3% in 2010," the IEA said in its Iraq Energy Outlook.
Still, that is a downward revision from the IEA's last review of Iraq's energy prospects, in 2012, when it had forecast production of 7.5 million b/d by 2030, due to reductions in the plateau targets for many of the country's major fields and greater competition for capital.
Security is paramount to growing Iraq's output, but from a technical standpoint, securing ample water supply will prove vital.
Most of Iraq's southern fields in Basrah, its largest producing province, are operated by international oil companies under technical service contracts that require the government to provide water to maintain well pressure.
To expand production, Iraq will need to source around 3 million b/d of water to meet reservoir requirements, the IEA estimated.
