石油设备网讯 据天然气工业5月13日消息称，近年来，全球液化天然气市场增长迅速，仅2018年一年的进出口就增长了10%。根据彭博社的一项新预测，这种增长将在未来几年继续快速增长。
然而，预计2019年至2023年液化天然气出口和进口增速将出现不同步，出口增速将快于进口增速——除非进口市场出现异常温度，提振作用需求，否则将对价格构成下行压力——然后，进口增速将在2022年至2023年超过出口增速。
BNEF的《2019-2023年全球液化天然气展望》预计，2随着美国墨西哥湾沿岸、澳大利亚和俄罗斯启用或扩大出口设施，2019年液化天然气供应量将跃升3300万吨/年，达到创纪录的3.58亿吨/年。与此同时，由于欧洲和亚洲增加了对发电和供暖的采购，预计今年的“结构性”液化天然气需求(按当前液化天然气价格计算为中性需求)将增加1700万吨/日。
BNEF大宗商品主管Ashish Sethia表示评论道：“今年预计的1600万吨的过剩供应对市场来说难以吸收，除非我们对北亚或欧洲夏季或冬季的炎热或寒冷有一定的‘疯狂需求’。否则，液化天然气价格将面临压力。”
短期供应过剩的前景并未吓退投资者。另外还有7个价值数十亿美元的液化天然气出口项目，包括美国路易斯安那州的3个项目和莫桑比克的2个项目，接近最终投资决定，并可能在2023年后为全球市场带来额外供应。
BNEF液化天然气分析负责人以及该预测的主要作者Maggie Kuang表示：“我们预计，从2022年起，市场将再度吃紧，由于天然气在中国内陆省份的渗透率提高，以及内陆水道液化天然气加注量的增长，以及泰国和巴基斯坦成为液化天然气需求增长的重要引擎，需求将不断上升。”
这段时期也可能成为对欧洲电力和取暖行业的考验。BNEF欧洲天然气分析负责人John Twomey表示：“未来几年，欧洲的天然气将越来越依赖进口。预计到2023年，液化天然气市场将趋紧，而欧洲的天然气价格必须高到足以与亚洲快速增长的市场竞争，并吸引液化天然气进口。”
去年液化天然气(LNG)需求激增，总计近3000万吨/年，同时韩国、印度、巴基斯坦和欧洲的进口也大幅增加。埃及是少数几个需求大幅下降的国家之一。
在供应方面，2018年在澳大利亚的三条液化天然气生产线即液化和出口设施开始生产，俄罗斯和美国分别有2条和3条。全球最大的液化天然气生产国卡塔尔仅小幅增产。
液化天然气一个重要的标志性变化是，从使用原油作为合同价格基准逐渐转向使用天然气指数，突显出液化天然气市场作为发电、工业、商业和住宅供暖的煤炭替代品的成熟方式。BNEF的报告称，美国的新项目正推动这一组合朝着天然气指数化方向发展。
曹海斌 摘译自 天然气工业
原文如下：
Booming LNG faces big swings in supply-demand balance
Recent years have seen rapid growth in the global market for LNG, with volumes of exports and imports up 10% in 2018 alone. This expansion is set to continue apace in the years ahead, according to a new forecast from BloombergNEF (BNEF).
However, growth rates of LNG exports and imports are seen moving out of sync in 2019 - 2023, with exports increasing faster than imports in 2019 – putting downward pressure on prices unless unusual temperatures in import markets lift demand – and then imports outstripping exports in 2022 - 2023.
BNEF’s ‘Global LNG Outlook 2019 - 2023’ sees LNG supply jumping by 33 million tpy in 2019, reaching a record 358 million tpy, with the US Gulf Coast, Australia and Russia commissioning or expanding export facilities. Meanwhile, ‘structural’ LNG demand, or weather-neutral demand at current LNG prices, is expected to rise by 17 million tpy this year, thanks to additional purchases for power generation and heating in Europe and Asia.
Ashish Sethia, head of commodities at BNEF, commented: “This year’s expected excess supply of 16 million tpy will be hard for the market to absorb, unless we get a dose of ‘wild demand’ for either a hotter summer or colder winter in North Asia or Europe. If not, pressure will be on LNG prices.”
The prospect of short-term oversupply is not deterring investors. A further seven multibillion-dollar LNG export projects, including three in Louisiana in the US and two in Mozambique, are close to a final investment decision and are likely to put extra supply into world markets post-2023.
Maggie Kuang, head of LNG analysis at BNEF and lead author of the forecast, said: “We expect the market to become tight again from 2022 onwards, with demand rising due to higher penetration of gas in China’s inner provinces and growth of LNG bunkering in inland waterways, and as Thailand and Pakistan become important engines of LNG demand growth.”
That period could also prove to be testing for Europe’s power and heating sectors. John Twomey, head of European gas analysis at BNEF, said: “Europe will become increasingly import-dependent for its gas over the next few years. The LNG market is forecast to tighten by 2023, and European prices will need to be high enough to compete with those of fast-growing markets in Asia and to attract LNG imports.”
The jump in LNG demand last year, totalling nearly 30 million tpy, reflected a 41% surge in purchasing of the commodity by China, and other significant percentage increases in imports in South Korea, India, Pakistan and Europe. One of the few countries to see a big percentage reduction in demand was Egypt.
On the supply side, 2018 saw the start of production at three LNG ‘trains’, or liquefaction and export facilities, in Australia, at two more in Russia and three in the US. The world’s largest LNG producer, Qatar, increased production only marginally.
One important symbolic change for LNG is the gradual shift away from using crude oil as the price benchmark for contracts, to using a gas index, underlining the way the market for LNG has matured as an alternative to coal for electricity generation and for industrial, business and residential heating. New projects from the US are pushing the mix toward gas-indexation, the BNEF report says.
