石油设备网讯 据普氏能源资讯5月15日休斯顿报道，国际能源机构(IEA)在其最新的月度石油市场报告(OMR)中表示，尽管地缘政治供应问题仍在持续，但全球石油市场仍保持平静。
在过去几天里，地缘政治供应问题一直受到沙特阿拉伯油轮遇袭事件的影响。IEA还在监测俄罗斯原油通过日运送量为140万桶/天Druzhba 管道系统的污染影响。
尽管地缘政治背景艰难，以及其他供应问题，但总体油价与一个月前相比略有变化，布朗特原油价仅高于每桶70美元。其他生产商已经发出了明确的信号，他们将根据客户的要求，逐渐介入替换石油。
与此同时，需求方面的担忧也得到了适度的抵消。自去年年中以来，IEA对2019年的增长预测变化不大，但本月该机构将每日减少9万桶，降至每天130万桶。这主要是由于巴西、日本、韩国、尼日利亚和其他地区的第一季度数据低于预期。然而，IEA认为，需求增长放缓很可能是短暂的，今年剩余时间内，增长速度将加快。
IEA称，随着我们在2019年第二季度的发展，虽然供应方面存在相当大的不确定性，但隐含的平衡很可能会变成大约相同规模的指示性赤字。4月初，经济合作与发展组织（OECD）的股票已经下降到7月的远期保额，其他股票指标也指向了相同的方向。
郝芬 译自 OGJ
原文如下:
IEA: Oil market calm despite geopolitical supply concerns
In its latest monthly Oil Market Report (OMR), the International Energy Agency said the global oil market remains calm despite the ongoing geopolitical supply concerns.
The geopolitical supply concerns have been joined in the past few days by the attacks on shipping off Fujairah and on two pumping stations in Saudi Arabia. IEA also is monitoring the impact of the contamination of Russian crude oil passing through the 1.4-million b/d Druzhba pipeline system.
Despite the difficult geopolitical backdrop and other supply problems, headline oil prices are little changed from a month ago at just above $70/bbl for Brent crude. There have been clear signals from other producers that they will step in to replace the barrels—albeit gradually—in response to requests from customers.
Meanwhile, there is a modest offset to supply worries from the demand side. IEA’s growth estimate for 2019 has changed little since the middle of last year, but this month the agency cut it by 90,000 b/d to a still healthy 1.3 million b/d. The reduction is mainly due to weaker-than-expected first-quarter data for Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Nigeria, and elsewhere. However, IEA believed that slower demand growth is likely to be short-lived, and the pace will pick up during the rest of the year.
“As we move through the second quarter of 2019, while there is considerable uncertainty on the supply side, it is highly likely that the implied balance will flip into an indicative deficit of about the same size. Stocks in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) at the start of April have fallen back to the level seen in July in terms of days of forward cover and other stock indicators are pointing in the same direction,” IEA said.
