石油设备网讯 据油气新闻5月20日消息称，Arthur D. Little（ADL）最近的一份报告的第二部分—建设阶段的北溪2号经济影响”——分析了正在进行的从俄罗斯到德国的两条天然气管道建设项目的经济影响(创造就业和GDP)。该报告是2017年早些时候一份报告的后续报告，分析了项目投资的现状，并得出结论，欧盟建设管道的总经济效益为99亿欧元。
与第一份报告(2017年)相比，该报告是在采购阶段完成的，由于该项目正在建设中，多个欧盟和非欧盟国家目前承诺和支出的资本支出是第一份报告的两倍以上。来自欧洲和俄罗斯的1000多名承包商正在为该项目的实现做出贡献。这包括提供材料或建筑服务的大型国际公司和提供专家服务的小型企业。此外，截至2018年12月底的投资将在未来5年内为欧盟创造相当于57500个全职工作岗位的就业机会，各工业部门的GDP将增加47亿欧元。
北溪2是一个主要的天然气基础设施项目，旨在建设一个管道系统，每年输送能力为550亿立方米。它将安全可靠地向欧洲市场出口天然气。欧洲市场需求稳定，但本土产量正在下降，造成了进口缺口。
这项由北溪2委委托Arthur D. Little进行的新研究的目的是了解该项目对欧洲经济的直接、间接和诱导影响，以及对已经或正在对管道进行更详细实际投资的国家的影响。与前一份报告相比，本报告考虑了实际支出和详细的供应商数据，直到运营开始。
它估计了与项目执行相关的影响，以及对供应链和更广泛经济的影响。该分析使用了基于不同经济体基础统计数据库的经济建模工具(IMPLAN)。该研究考虑了截至2018年12月底(资本支出)的所有已承诺和已支出的80亿欧元投资。
在进行与项目有关的主要建设活动的国家——俄罗斯、德国、芬兰、丹麦和瑞典——受到的影响最为显著; 在荷兰、英国、挪威和意大利等传统上与近海石油和天然气工业有联系的国家，服务提供者占大多数; 并在总部为项目开发商及其他国际服务提供商提供服务。目前的研究补充了对供应商的访问，这些访问证实了该项目对公司发展和当地社区的有益影响。该研究还强调了一些主要的创新和针对项目工作带来的挑战的开创性解决方案。
ADL能源与公用事业公司合伙人Michael Kruse表示：“在石油和天然气行业正在经历削减和裁员的时候，这份报告透明地展示了北溪2等大型能源基础设施项目的优势。”
曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻
原文如下：
Study suggests Nord Stream 2 has total economic benefit to EU of €9.9 billion
The second part of a recent report from Arthur D. Little (ADL) – “Nord Stream 2 economic impact in the construction phase” – analyses the economic effects (job creation and GDP) of the ongoing project to build two new gas pipelines from Russia to Germany. The report, which is a follow-up to an earlier report created in 2017, analyses the current status of project investment and concludes that the total economic benefit to the European Union (EU) represents €9.9 billion for building the pipelines.
In comparison to the first report (2017), which was carried out in the procurement phase, more than twice as much CAPEX has now been committed and spent in several EU and non-EU countries now that the project is in the middle of construction. More than 1000 contractors from all over Europe and Russia are contributing to the realisation of the project. This includes both large international firms providing materials or construction services and small enterprises providing expert services. Furthermore, the investment until the end of December 2018 creates 57 500 full-time job equivalents in the EU over five years, adding €4.7 billion in GDP in various industrial sectors.
Nord Stream 2 is a major natural gas infrastructure project that aims to build a pipeline system with 55 billion m3 per year of transport capacity. It will safely and reliably export gas to the European market, where demand is stable but indigenous production is decreasing, creating an import gap.
The objective of the new Arthur D. Little study, commissioned by Nord Stream 2, is to understand the direct, indirect and induced effects of the project on the European economy, and on countries where actual investments in the pipeline have been or are being made in more detail. Compared to the previous report, the current one takes actual spent and detailed supplier data until the beginning of operations into account.
It estimates the effects related to the execution of the project, as well as those on supply chains and the wider economy. The analysis used an economic modeling tool (IMPLAN) based on underlying statistical databases for different economies. The study considers all committed and spent investments as of the end of December 2018 of (CAPEX) €8 billion.
The most pronounced effects are seen in countries where major project-related construction activities are taking place – Russia, Germany, Finland, Denmark and Sweden; in countries traditionally associated with the offshore oil and gas industry that host the majority of service providers – the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Norway and Italy; and at the headquarters of the project developer and other international service providers. The current study was complemented with supplier interviews which confirmed the beneficial impact the project has had on corporate development and local communities. Also highlighted in the study were some of the major innovations and pioneering solutions for challenges that resulted from project work.
Michael Kruse, Partner in ADL’s Energy & Utilities Practice, said: “At a time when the oil and gas industry is experiencing cut-backs and lay-offs, this report transparently demonstrates the benefits of large energy infrastructure projects such as Nord Stream 2.”
