石油设备网讯 据离岸工程5月26日消息称，一份报告称，2019年美国油气行业用于水力压裂作业的沙子需求将增长10%，2020年将增长17%。
根据雷斯塔能源的预测，随着更多的北方白砂从市场上消失，压裂砂的供应预计将在2019年增加10%，到2020年将减少2%。
这家能源研究和商业情报公司表示，德克萨斯州南部的鹰福特盆地可能对未来的砂价走势发挥关键作用。
根据雷斯塔能源最新的支撑剂市场报告，中长期来看，该矿区优质北方白砂的合约价格可能在每吨20美元至25美元之间波动。
雷斯塔能源预计，二叠纪盆地内砂价格在预测期内不会上涨，因为这些矿山的新增产能不像新开发的油田那么资本密集。
水力压裂过程中使用的压裂砂是页岩井钻机成本的主要驱动因素。由于市场供过于求，价格一段时间以来一直承压。
然而，过去两个月现货市场上北方白砂价格上涨，目前高于每吨30美元。据雷斯塔能源称，油价上涨是由暂时影响造成的，大部分问题将很快得到解决。
展望未来，德克萨斯州南部的鹰福特盆地将是该行业值得关注的关键市场。
雷斯塔能源高级分析师托马斯•雅各布表示：“鹰福特盆地内砂的采用率将决定北部白砂的未来。鹰福特盆地发现的较低质量的盆地内砂可能不会被广泛采用，因为该盆地发现的井下压力较高。”
鹰福特60%的活性发生在平均处理压力大于8000 psi的情况下。这将意味着该盆地的采用率降低，这对北部白沙来说是个好消息。
雅各布补充说:“鹰福特盆地内的砂矿近几个月来一直难以达到预期的利用水平，但我们预计这个问题将在近期得到解决。”
预计2024年压裂砂需求将达到1.81亿吨，2019年至2024年年均增长8%(复合年增长率，CAGR)。预计二叠纪将在同一时期从5500万吨增加到8500万吨。
2024年压裂砂供应量将达到2.39亿吨。雷斯塔能源预计，，到2020年底，北方白沙供应量的35%至40%将面市，而这一比例被视为该行业在沙质方面的黄金标准。
曹海斌 摘译自 离岸工程
原文如下：
Frac Sand Prices to Remain Flat
Demand for sand to be used by the oil and gas industry in hydraulic fracturing operations in the US is set to grow by 10% in 2019 and 17% in 2020, said a report.
According to Rystad Energy, frac sand supply, on the other hand, is forecast to increase by 10% in 2019 and then decrease by 2% in 2020 as more Northern White Sand will come off the market.
The Eagle Ford Basin in South Texas could play a pivotal role for sand price developments going forward, said the energy research and business intelligence company.
Contracted prices of high-quality Northern White Sand will likely fluctuate between $20 and $25 per ton at the minegate in the medium to long-term, according to Rystad Energy’s latest Proppant Market Report.
Rystad Energy does not expect in-basin sand prices in the Permian to increase in the forecast period as incremental capacity additions at these mines are not as capital-intensive as at new greenfield mines.
Frac sand, which is used in the hydraulic fracturing process, is a key cost driver for shale well drillers. Prices have been under pressure for some time thanks to oversupply in the market.
However, Northern White Sand prices increased over the past two months on the spot market and are currently above $30 per ton. The price increase has been caused by temporary effects, and most will be resolved shortly, according to Rystad Energy.
Looking ahead, the Eagle Ford Basin in South Texas will be the key market to watch in the industry.
“Adoption rates for in-basin sand in Eagle Ford will determine the future for Northern White Sand. Lower quality in-basin sand found in Eagle Ford may not be widely adopted due to higher downhole pressures found in that basin,” says Thomas Jacob, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy.
Around 60% of activity in Eagle Ford occurs at average treatment pressures greater than 8,000 psi. This would suggest lower adoption rates in the basin, which is good news for Northern White Sand.
“In-basin sand mines in Eagle Ford have struggled to reach desired utilization levels in recent months, but we expect this issue to be solved in the near term,” Jacob added.
Frac sand demand is forecast to reach 181 million tons in 2024, representing 8% annual growth from 2019 to 2024 (compound annual growth rate, CAGR). The Permian is expected to grow from 55 to 85 million tons in the same time period.
Frac sand supply is set to reach 239 million tons in 2024. Rystad Energy expects 35% to 40% of Northern White Sand supply – considered the gold standard of the industry with respect to sand quality – to come off the market by the end of 2020.
