石油设备网讯 据离岸工程5月30日消息称，在接受调查的40家美国页岩油公司的财务业绩中，只有4家公司在2019年第一季度的现金流余额为正值，从而使现金流余额为正值的公司所占比例从最近的20%左右降至10%。
根据雷斯塔能源的数据，90%的美国页岩油公司正在烧钱。
经营活动现金流总额(CFO)从2018年第四季度的140亿美元下降到2019年第一季度的99亿美元。
雷斯塔能源北美页岩团队的高级分析师Alisa Lukash表示：“这是我们自2017年第四季度以来见过的最低CFO。”
Alisa补充道：“资本支出与CFO之间的差距达到了惊人的47亿美元。这意味着巨大的超支，这是自2017年第三季度以来从未见过的。”
由于现金流为负，页岩气企业历来依赖债券市场为其运营融资。如果没有额外的资金和任何债务再融资，资本支出将不得不削减。
然而，自去年底油价大幅下跌(以及随后的股价下跌)以来，没有一家美国页岩气企业上市，这是自2014年以来公共资本发行缺口最大的一年。
2019年3月和4月，一些负债更多的运营商发行了债券，旨在部分偿还明年的未偿债务。然而，从市场的角度来看，由于美联储加息以及美国石油公司的总体风险增加，这类债券的发行价已大幅上涨。
Lukash称:"近期公布的数据证实第一季获利惨淡，但只会巩固市场负面情绪。尽管页岩气运营商继续专注于提高资本效率，但投资者正将该行业置于极端压力之下，2019年没有任何无序支出的空间。”
在经历了冬季几个月的季节性下滑后，许多运营商现在正在建立生产势头。随着油价上涨，雷斯塔能源预计第二季度CFO将大幅增加，而资本支出保持稳定。
美国多数页岩油生产商已通过偿还即将到期的债务，略微减少了长期债务。这支持了许多勘探开发公司的去杠杆化目标。
Lukash表示:“当考虑潜在股东的可用现金回报时，美国多数页岩油运营商认为，今年第一季度自由现金流降至股本水平以下。”
雷斯塔能源预计，2019年下半年钻探活动将保持强劲，这可能会增加交易量，而不是吸引资本流入该行业。
Lukash补充说:“规模更大的多元化运营商，拥有多个现金生成引擎，更能抵御大宗商品价格的波动，将特别准备开放，以收购新的土地。”
曹海斌 摘译自 离岸工程
原文如下：
only 10% of Shale Firms Reports Positive Cash Flow
only four, out of the financial performance of 40 dedicated US shale oil firms under study, reported a positive cash flow balance in the first quarter of 2019, bringing down the share of companies with a positive cash flow balance from the recent norm of around 20% to just 10%.
Nine in ten US shale oil companies are burning cash, according to Rystad Energy.
Total cash flow from operating activities (CFO) fell from $14 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018 to $9.9 billion in the first quarter of 2019.
“That is the lowest CFO we have seen since the fourth quarter of 2017,” says Alisa Lukash, Senior Analyst on Rystad Energy’s North American Shale team.
“The gap between capex and CFO has reached a staggering $4.7 billion. This implies tremendous overspend, the likes of which have not been seen since the third quarter of 2017,” Alisa added.
With negative cash flows, shale companies have historically relied on bond markets to finance their operations. Without additional funding and any debt refinancing, capex would have to be cut.
However, no US shale company has made a public offering since the sharp fall in oil prices – and subsequent share price slide – late last year, marking the longest gap in public capital issuance since 2014.
March and April 2019 saw a few of the more indebted operators issue bonds, intended to partly cover outstanding obligations for the coming year. However, pricing for this type of issuance has risen substantially due to the increased Fed Rate and the overall increased risk associated with US oil companies from a market perspective.
“Recently released data, which confirmed dismal first quarter earnings, only served to cement negative market sentiment,” Lukash said. “While shale operators continue to focus on improving capital efficiency, investors are putting the industry under extreme pressure, leaving no room for undisciplined spending in 2019.”
Many operators are building production momentum now after a seasonal dip during the winter months. As oil prices improve Rystad Energy expects the second quarter will see a significant increase in CFO while capex remains stable.
The majority of US shale oil producers have slightly reduced their long-term debt by paying down obligations which will soon reach maturity. This supports the deleveraging goals of many E&Ps.
“When considering available cash for a potential stockholder payback, the majority of US shale oil operators saw free cash flow to equity below zero in the first quarter,” Lukash remarked.
In the second half of 2019 Rystad Energy expects drilling activity to stay robust, potentially increasing transaction volumes rather than inducing an inflow of capital into the industry.
“Larger diversified operators, which have multiple cash generating engines and are more resistant to volatile commodity prices, will be especially poised to open up to acquisition of new acreage,” Lukash added.
