石油设备网讯 据道琼斯6月5日消息，商业信息提供商IHS Markit公司的数据显示，尽管产量将进入较慢的年度生产增长时期，但是到2030年，加拿大油砂总产量预计将达到每日近400万桶，较目前增加近100万桶。
IHS Markit预计未来10年每年加拿大油砂平均日产量同比增幅将低于10万桶。相比之下，过去10年每年的平均日产量增幅经常超过15万桶。
IHS Markit副总裁、油砂对话负责人凯文•伯恩(Kevin Birn)表示，运输限制，比如缺乏足够的管输能力，以及加拿大西部原油价格的不稳定，都对油砂领域的大规模新投资产生了压力。
伯恩在事先准备好的讲话中表示：“加拿大油砂的主要出口产品加拿大重质含硫原油的出口量达到了前所未有的水平，全球重质含硫原油供应吃紧。”
根据预测，加拿大油砂产量未来的增长将主要来自现有项目和设施，而不是新项目。
据预测，2030年前加拿大油砂产量预计增长的五分之二将来自在建或近期完工的项目。近四分之一的增长将来自暂停的但建设或工地清理工作已经开始的项目。预计不到三分之一的增长将来自新项目。
张春晓 摘译自 道琼斯
原文如下：
Total Oil Sands Production Will Be Up about 1 Million Barrels by 2030: IHS Markit
Total Canadian oil sands production is expected to reach nearly four million barrels a day by 2030, up nearly one million more than currently, despite production being set to enter a period of slower annual production growth, according to business information provider IHS Markit Ltd. (INFO).
IHS Markit expects average year-on-year supply additions to be below 100,000 barrels a day in the coming decade, according to its new 10-year production forecast. By contrast, growth over the current decade regularly averaged additions in excess of 150,000 barrels a day.
Transportation constraints, such as a lack of adequate pipeline capacity, and price insecurity in western Canada have weighed on new large-scale investments in oil sands, said IHS Markit vice president Kevin Birn, who heads the Oil Sands Dialogue.
"Canadian heavy sour crude oil--the principal export from the Canadian oil sands--has never been greater as the rapid deterioration of output tightens the supply of heavy sour crude globally," Mr. Birn said in prepared remarks.
Future growth will mostly come from existing projects and facilities as opposed to new projects, according to the forecast.
Two-fifths of the anticipated rise in oil sands production to 2030 will come from ramp-up of projects in construction or recently completed ones, according to the forecast. Nearly one-quarter of the growth will come from projects that are on hold but construction or site clearing has already begun. Less than one-third is expected to come from new projects, IHS Markit found.
