石油设备网讯 据路透社巴黎报道，周五，国际能源署(IEA)表示，受中国天然气需求增长的推动，在2024年之前，全球天然气需求预计将以每年1.6%的速度增长，中国的消费将占同期需求增长的三分之一以上。
亚太地区在中期内仍将是天然气消费增长的最大来源，年均增长率为4%，在2024年之前将占总消费量增长的60%左右。
IEA在其年度天然气市场报告中表示，美国、中东和北非的国内需求将有助于需求的增长。
欧洲的天然气需求将受益于煤炭和核电站的关闭，但可再生能源的扩张和供暖需求的下降将限制天然气增长。
预计工业部门将成为强有力的增长来源，占全球增长的近一半，取代发电成为主要的增长动力。
2018年全球天然气需求出现了自2010年以来的最大增长，估计增长率为4.6%。
Sadamori表示：“美国的需求增长最大，增长了800亿立方米，增幅超过10%。从煤炭向天然气的转变，主要是在美国的发电领域。天气也对美国2018年的天然气需求产生了重大影响，冬季气温低于平均水平，而夏季气温高于平均水平，这推动了建筑和发电的需求。
预计到2024年，美国将继续在供应增长方面处于领先地位，年产量将超过1万亿立方米。
在液化天然气市场上，预计到2024年，贸易量将从2018年的4320亿立方米增加到5460亿立方米。
IEA报告说，预计到预测期结束时，美国将超过卡塔尔和澳大利亚，成为全球最大的液化天然气出口国，2024年达到1130亿立方米，美国，澳大利亚和俄罗斯将占同期液化天然气出口增长的90%左右。在欧洲，随着荷兰的格罗宁根油田的逐步淘汰和北海的枯竭，当地产量持续下滑，供应缺口将在2024年前扩大到3360亿立方米，该缺口几乎每年增加500亿立方。
IEA表示，LNG在海上运输中的使用仍然是一个小众市场，主要集中在欧洲，截至2019年初，约有155艘LNG 燃料船只在运营, 但是LNG动力船的数量增长很快，到2024年将翻一番。
詹晓晶摘自路透社
原文如下：
Global gas demand to grow at 1.6% per year until 2024: IEA
Global gas demand is expected to grow at a rate of 1.6% a year until 2024, fueled by Chinese consumption which will account for over a third of the demand growth during the period, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.
The Asia-Pacific region will remain the largest source of gas consumption growth in the medium term with an average rate of 4% per year, and will account for around 60% of the total consumption increase until 2024.
Domestic demand in the United States, the Middle East and North Africa, would contribute to the growth in demand, the IEA said in its annual gas market report.
Gas demand in Europe will benefit from the shutdown of coal and nuclear power plants, but gains would be limited by the expansion of renewables and lower demand for heating, it said.
The industrial sector is expected to be a strong source of growth, accounting for almost half of the global increase, replacing power generation as the main growth driver.
In 2018, global gas demand saw its strongest growth since 2010 at an estimated rate of 4.6 percent.
“Demand growth in the U.S. was the largest, increasing by 80 billion cubic meters (bcm) or over 10%. The switch from coal to gas mainly in power generation for the U.S.was responsible for nearly half of the increase,” Sadamori said.
The weather also had a major impact on U.S. gas demand in 2018 with a colder-than-average winter and hotter-than-average summer driving demand in building and power generation, he said.
The United States is expected to continue its lead in supply growth with annual output seen exceeding 1 trillion cubic meters (tcm) by 2024.
In the liquefied natural gas market (LNG), trade is expected to reach 546 bcm by 2024 from 432 bcm in 2018.
The IEA report said the United States was expected to surpass Qatar and Australia to become the world’s largest LNG exporter by the end of the forecast period, at 113 bcm in 2024, and the United States, Australia and Russia would account for around 90% of the increase in LNG exports during the period.
In Europe, the supply gap will widen to reach 336 bcm by 2024, increasing by almost 50 bcm per year as domestic production continues its slide with the phasing out of the Groningen field in the Netherlands, and North Sea depletion.
IEA said the use of LNG for maritime transport was still a niche market concentrated in Europe with around 155 LNG-fuelled vessels in operation as of early 2019, but the fleet of LNG-powered vessels was growing fast, and would double by 2024.
