石油设备网讯 据安迅思新闻伦敦6月11日消息，BP首席经济学家Spencer Dale称，2018年全球能源需求和二氧化碳(CO2)排放量的异常大幅增加是当年极端天气的结果。
Dale称，去年以来，尽管全球经济增长相对适度，但能源需求增速创下自2010年以来的最快水平，能源需求增长2.9%，二氧化碳排放量增加2%。
Dale补充称，印度等快速增长的发展中经济体的能源需求大幅增加并不令人惊讶，但美国能源需求增加了3.5%令人惊讶，去年美国能源需求增速创下过去三十年中的最快增速。
分析人士认为，2018年美国能源需求大幅增加主要是由于极端气候的影响，异常气候天数创下自1950年代以来的最高值。
Dale表示，去年二氧化碳排放量增速高于历史平均水平1.4个百分点，这与去年能源需求增加高度相关，去年全球能源增速高于历史平均水平1.5个百分点，但这也表明，全球能源构成中清洁能源的比例并没有提高。
Dale补充称，在经历了数所的下降后，煤炭需求已经连续第二年出现增长，政府还没有做出低碳经济必要的转变，这也意味着“希望与现实之间的不匹配”。
尽管未来的天气模式无法预测，但2018年的取暖和制冷天数的大幅增加，从而引发了恶性循环的可能性。
Dale表示，在大气中积累的二氧化碳可能会导致极端天气天数的增加，因此需要更高的排放来应对这种情况，这可能会导致更极端的天气。
张春晓 摘译自 ICIS
原文如下：
Extreme weather drives increase in energy consumption, emissions in 2018 - BP economist
The unexpected scale of the increase in energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2018 was a result of more extreme weather during the year, according to BP’s chief economist.
Last year recorded the fastest increase in primary energy demand growth since 2010, despite relatively modest global economic expansion over the same period, with a 2.9% uptick driving a 2% increase in emissions, according to BP’s Spencer Dale.
Totalling 0.6 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2), the increase in emissions last year was the equivalent of the global automotive fleet increasing by 400m.
Substantial increases in energy demand from fast-growing developing economies like India was not a surprise, but the extent of US demand growth, representing a 3.5% increase and the fastest increase in the country in 30 years, was less expected, he added.
Analysts determined that the trend was due to a sharp uptick in hot and cold weather in the country, leading to more heating and cooling days since the 1950s.
The increase in emissions – 1.4 percentage points above the historical average – was strongly linked to demand levels, which were 1.5 percentage points above average during the year, he said, but this also indicates that the energy mix is not decarbonising.
With coal consumption increasing for the second consecutive year after several years where demand fell, governments have yet to make the leaps necessary to transition to a lower carbon economy, representing a “mismatch between hopes and reality” , he added.
While shifts in future weather patterns are far from certain, the drastic increase in heating and cooling days during 2018 raises the possibility of a vicious cycle.
Carbon accumulating in the atmosphere could drive an increase in extreme weather, necessitating higher emissions to cope with that, which could in turn result in more extreme weather, Dale said.
