石油设备网讯 据管道新闻网6月11日消息称，由于在过去10年里发现了塔玛尔(Tamar)和利维坦(Leviathan)等天然气资源，以色列经历了一场能源生产革命。据数据分析公司GlobalData称，在此背景下，该国的天然气产量将大大超过需求，到本世纪20年代中期，该做将成为地中海东部地区的天然气出口国。
该公司的最新报告显示，预计到2029年，以色列的天然气需求将大幅增长，超过8000亿立方英尺，主要原因是政府承诺实现《巴黎协定》的环境目标，并计划在未来10年减少对煤炭的依赖。目前，以色列剩余的可采天然气储量估计约为26.2万亿立方英尺(约为1.83万亿立方米)，是该国2019年天然气消费量预期的62倍。
向约旦和埃及出口利维坦1A期天然气的协议已经达成。以色列和埃及于2018年签署了一份合同，将在10年内通过管道出口22580亿立方英尺的天然气。从2020年开始，以色列还将通过一条65公里长的管道，每年向约旦出口1060亿立方英尺天然气。
然而，以色列还需要进入更多的市场；否则，该国将无法出口大量天然气。如果没有额外的出口路线，利维坦1B期等上游项目以及利维坦和卡瑞什未来的扩张将是不可能的，勘探方面的新投资也可能受到限制。
“地中海东部地区是一个勘探热点，过去几年里发现了一系列万亿立方英尺的天然气，这有可能在邻国和欧洲替代以色列的天然气。以以色列希望签署一项建设2000公里东地中海(EastMed)管道的协议。这条管道将从以色列和塞浦路斯进入希腊，然后通过波塞冬IGI管道进入意大利。该项目计划每年从利维坦盆地(位于以色列和塞浦路斯)出口3530亿立方英尺的天然气。然而，这个项目处于非常早期的阶段，没有对其建设作出坚定的承诺，以色列出口战略的任何失败都将直接影响对以色列上游部门的投资。”
曹海斌 摘译自 管道新闻网
原文如下：
Israel will emerge as gas exporter in Eastern Mediterranean region
Israel has gone through an energy production revolution owing to discoveries of natural gas resources such as the Tamar and Leviathan fields over the past decade. Against this backdrop, the country’s gas production will significantly exceed demand and it will emerge as a gas exporter in the Eastern Mediterranean region by mid-2020s, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
The company’s latest report reveals that gas demand in Israel is forecast to increase significantly to more than 800 billion ft3 in 2029, mainly due to the government commitments to COP 21 (Paris agreement) environmental targets and plan to reduce the dependence on coal over the next decade. Currently, Israel’s remaining recoverable gas reserves are estimated to be around 26.2 trillion ft3, approximately 62 times greater than the country’s anticipated gas consumption in 2019.
Export agreements to Jordan and Egypt have already been agreed for the Leviathan Phase 1A gas volumes. A contract was signed between Israel and Egypt in 2018 to export 2258 billion ft3 of gas over a decade via pipeline. Israel will also export 106 billion ft3 gas per year to Jordan starting from 2020 through a 65 km pipeline.
However, Israel will also need access to additional markets; otherwise it will not be able to export large quantities of natural gas. Upstream projects such as Leviathan Phase 1B and future expansions of Leviathan and Karish will not be possible without additional export routes and new investment in exploration is likely to be limited as well.
“The Eastern Mediterranean is an exploration hotspot, with a string of multi-trillion ft3 discoveries over the past few years, which could be possible alternatives to the Israeli gas in the neighboring countries and Europe. Israel hopes to sign a deal for the construction of the 2000 km EastMed pipeline, which will cross from Israel and Cyprus into Greece and later via Poseidon IGI pipeline to Italy. The project is designed to export 353 billion ft3 of natural gas per year from the Leviathan basin (in Israel and Cyprus). However, this project is at a very early stage with no firm commitments made towards its construction and any failure in Israel’s export strategies will directly affect the investment going into Israel’s upstream sector.”
