石油设备网讯 据普氏能源资讯7月10日新加坡报道，据市场参与者称，由于原料成本疲软、全球需求疲软和预期的工厂初创企业，全球聚乙烯市场的前景在今年剩余时间内是悲观的。
据估计，到12月底，预计将有400万至500万吨的新聚乙烯供应上线，其中290万吨将在美国和亚洲其他地区供应。然而，由于在达到标准树脂之前的典型的加速循环中存在各种各样的延迟，以及从蒸汽裂解炉现场接收单体的潜在延迟，预计新聚乙烯单元最初只能贡献其铭牌容量的一半左右。
市场人士预计，今年下半年，除中国以外，拉美、欧洲和亚洲等地区将有更多美国页岩气PE进入全球市场。中东主要供应地区的生产商预计，2019年PE年产量将达到1200万吨左右，这将继续使终端产品组合多样化，因为终端产品的竞争不那么激烈。
预计乙烯原料市场疲弱将打压PE买盘想法，而由于宏观经济不确定性，预计今年下半年的需求将普遍较上年同期更为悲观。
私人股本市场参与者对近期全球需求疲软更为担忧。交易员们表示，南亚和东南亚没有看到来自美国的聚合物成品订单增加，因为它们的制造能力不如中国。
一些与会者预计，由于区域工厂扩建和东盟-中国自由贸易协定，更多东南亚货物将出口到中国。消息人士称，由于劳动力成本下降，一些塑料回收企业也已搬迁至柬埔寨和缅甸等东南亚国家。
根据美国国际贸易委员会的数据，今年1-4月，美国高密度聚乙烯(high density聚乙烯)、线性低密度聚乙烯和低密度聚乙烯的出口总量为180万吨，同比增长近50%。然而，由于某些等级的聚乙烯的出口受到关税的影响，特别是低密度聚乙烯和高密度聚乙烯，美国出口商一直依赖拉美作为主要出口目的地。
欧洲今年从美国的进口有所增加，市场参与者预计这一趋势将持续到下半年。根据欧盟统计局的最新数据，2019年1月至4月，HDPE进口总量为3.53万吨，高于上年同期的22160万吨。
薛珂 摘译自 普氏能源资讯
原文如下：
H2 outlook: Global polyethylene market seen bearish on weak demand, rising supply
The outlook for the polyethylene market globally is bearish for the remainder of the year due to a combination of weak feedstock costs, weak global demand and anticipated plant startups, according to market participants.
An estimated 4 million-5 million mt of new polyethylene supply is expected to come online by end December -- 2.9 million mt of it in the US and the rest in Asia. However, the new polyethylene units are expected to contribute only around half their nameplate capacities initially due to the various delays in the typical ramp-up cycle before reaching on-specification resin, and due to potential delays in receiving on-site monomer from steam crackers.
Market sources were expecting more US shale-based PE to enter the market worldwide excluding China in H2, in regions such as Latin America, Europe and then Asia. Producer sources in the key supply region of the Middle East estimated that around 12 million mt/year of PE in 2019 will continue to diversify end-product portfolios, where competition is less intense.
Weak ethylene feedstock markets were expected to weigh on PE buying ideas, while demand was expected to be generally more bearish in H2 than a year earlier due to uncertain macroeconomics, particularly resulting from the US-China trade tensions.
PE market participants have been more concerned about the recent weakness in global demand. South Asia and Southeast Asia have not seen a rise in polymer finished orders from the US as their manufacturing capacities are not as big as China's, traders said.
Some participants were expecting more Southeast Asian cargoes to be exported to China due to regional plant expansions and the ASEAN-China free trade agreement. Some small plastic recyclers have also relocated to Southeast Asian countries such as Cambodia and Myanmar due to cheaper labor costs, sources said.
US exports of high density polyethylene, linear low density PE and low density PE combined totaled 1.8 million mt over January-April, surging almost 50% from the same period a year earlier, according to US International Trade Commission data. However, with exports for some grades of PE impacted by a 25% tariff, specifically LLDPE and HDPE, US exporters have relied on Latin America as a key export destination.
Europe has seen imports from the US increase this year, with market participants expecting this will continue into H2. According to latest Eurostat data, HDPE imports between January and April 2019 totaled 35,300 mt, up from 22,160 mt in the same period a year earlier.
