石油设备网讯 据塔斯社8月3日莫斯科报道，国际能源署(IEA)今年7月警告称，尽管欧佩克(OPEC+)成员国努力抑制供应增长，但俄罗斯石油市场在2020年可能面临供应过剩问题，这可能会压低油价，从而削减包括俄罗斯在内的产油国的预算收入。
尽管迄今为止，原油期货价格仍在每桶60美元至70美元的区间内，但接受塔斯社采访的专家们担忧明年油价仍有持续下跌的风险，石油市场仍不稳定。
BCS经纪公司Narek Avakyan投资部主管表示，全球石油市场目前看起来不稳定且不确定，美国页岩油产量正在上升，而即便考虑到欧佩克+协议的执行速度超出预期，需求仍落后于供应。
斯科尔科沃能源中心(Skolkovo Energy Center)的专家叶卡特琳娜表示，尽管欧佩克+扩展减产协议,但由于美国增加二叠纪生产，以及巴西石油产量的持续增长和欧洲石油产量的轻微增长，石油供应过剩的情况将在今明两年持续下去。估计,日产量可能从100万桶增至140万桶。另一方面，地缘政治因素使市场处于紧张状态，产油国的任何增产都会导致油价飙升。国际贸易紧张局势还将影响到2020年石油价格波动和供应增长，因为它们加剧了市场对经济增长率的负面预期。”
这位专家预计，波斯湾紧张局势将在一年半内持续，这将导致原油价格出现地缘政治溢价。不过，她表示，不太可能出现显著的增长，因为欧洲的需求将继续停滞不前，而亚洲发达国家的需求在未来两年内也不会增长。
Avakyan 指出，中东可能出现大规模停产或原油供应中断的威胁，这使得全球石油市场的形势很难预测。他表示：“考虑到目前的国际环境，布伦特原油对消费者和生产商的折衷价格区间为每桶60-65美元。近期油价的双向跃升表明，如果油价跌破这一区间，生产商将面临亏损。然而，如果油价接近每桶70美元或更高，消费者就会感到愤怒，而美国将首当其冲。”
与此同时，Grushevenko认为每桶65-70美元区间是2020年最现实的油价前景，除非出现不可抗力，否则油价波动可能会受到未能遵守欧佩克+协议或配额收紧、波斯湾局势升级以及国际贸易紧张局势的影响。
洪伟立 摘译自 塔斯社
原文如下：
Market watchers warn about risks of oil price plunge in 2020
Russia's oil market may face the supply glut in 2020 despite the OPEC+ deal participants’ efforts to constrain the supply growth, the International Energy Agency warned in July. That may push the oil price down, consequently, curtailing revenues of the budgets of oil-producing countries, including Russia.
Experts interviewed by TASS share those apprehensions as the market remains volatile with persisting risks of the oil price drop next year, though the crude oil futures remaining within the range of $60-$70 per barrel is still the most probable scenario so far.
The global oil market currently looks unstable and uncertain, with the US shale production on the rise, while the demand lagging behind the supply even considering the outperforming rates of the OPEC+ deal implementation, Head of the Investment Department at BCS Broker Narek Avakyan said.
Yekaterina Grushevenko, an expert at the Skolkovo Energy Center shares the opinion. "The situation with the oil supply glut will persist this year and next year. According to various estimates, it may total from 1 mln to 1.4 mln barrels per day despite the extension of the OPEC+ deal," she told TASS, adding that the US supply would rise due to increasing Permian production, as well as the continuing output growth in Brazil and a slight rise in Europe.
On the other hand, the geopolitical factor is keeping the market on tenterhooks, with any escalation in oil-producing states resulting in prices upsurge, Grushevenko explained. US-China trade wars will also affect the price volatility and supply growth in 2020, as they exacerbate negative market expectations regarding economic growth rates, she added.
The expert expects the Persian Gulf tensions to persist within a year and a half, which will contribute to a geopolitical premium for the crude price. However, a notable rise is unlikely, as the European demand will continue stagnating, same as the demand in Asian developed countries, which will not increase in the next two years, she said.
Finam Analyst Sergei Drozdov believes that the two main factors laying the groundwork for both upsurge and decrease in oil futures are tensions around Iran and the risks of global economic slowdown.
Drozdov warns about the risks of the oil price plunge in 2020 to $50 per barrel, though the prices most probably will hovering between $60 and $71 per barrel.
"A confluence of those factors (events evolving Iran and the world economic slowdown - TASS) will spur volatility on the oil market in the short run, with prices most likely staying within a short range of $60-71 per barrel by the end of 2019, though possibly falling to the $50-55 per barrel corridor in case of worsened sentiment across the global markets," he said.
Avakyan points to the threat of a potential mass-scale suspension of production or supplies of crude from the Middle East, which makes it hardly possible to project the situation on the global oil market.
Meanwhile, Grushevenko considers the $65-70 per barrel range the most realistic oil price outlook for 2020.
"Barring force majeure, the oil price fluctuations may be affected by failure to comply with the OPEC+ deal or tightening of quotas, the Persian Gulf escalation, and the talks dynamics between US and China," she suggested.
