石油设备网讯 据烃加工新闻3月19日消息称，雷斯塔能源估计，从4月起，全球市场每天将新增300万桶石油供应。200万桶/天是OPEC+成员国下个月根据其库存、闲置产能和产能提升情况实际能够增加的产量。
这一额外产能的供应正值全球供应出现过剩之时。在本月稍早的OPEC+会议之前，雷斯塔能源曾预估每日减产约200万桶才能平衡市场。
一旦从4月份开始供应额外的石油，预计油价将很快进一步下跌。但这还不是结束，因为OPEC+可能从5月起再增加80万桶，进一步提高其闲置产能。
Tonhaugen表示，随着石油现货价格随后暴跌，全球石油储藏能力将受到考验，存在着生产自停的风险，在这种情况下，盈亏平衡价格较高的国家将首先受到影响。
沙特将是计划增加产量最多的产油国，总供应能力将达到每日1230万桶。雷斯塔能源认为，如果不增加钻探，其上游原油产能短期内将限制在1150万桶/天左右。
目前，该国4月原油日产量预计将从2月的980万桶增至1,080万桶至1100万桶，5月进一步增至1120万桶。为了达到每日1230万桶的目标，其余石油可能来自其全球储存设施。
曹海斌 摘译自 烃加工新闻
原文如下：
Up to 3 million bpd of extra oil could hit market from April
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million bpd, Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800 000 bbl from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen says, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. Rystad Energy believes their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, the country’s April crude production is expected to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
