石油设备网讯 据油田技术3月20日报道，自2月的最后一周以来，石油、其他大宗商品和股票市场经历了大幅波动和价格下跌。最近，由于欧佩克及其成员国未能就继续削减原油产量达成协议，市场下跌。美国能源信息署(EIA)重点关注了欧佩克在目标产量方面的立场，以及它可能对全球石油平衡和价格产生的影响。
EIA在3月份的《短期能源展望》(short - short Energy Outlook)中预测，布伦特原油2020年的平均价格将为43美元/桶，低于2019年的平均价格64美元/桶。EIA预计，2020年的平均油价将在第二季度达到37美元/桶，下半年将升至43美元/桶。由于全球石油库存下降给油价带来上行压力，到2021年，布伦特原油价格将升至55美元/桶的平均水平。EIA预计，全球液体燃料库存在2019年减少约10万桶/天之后，到2020年将平均增加100万桶/天，而在2020年上半年，新增库存将达到最高水平，增幅为170万桶/天。
在3月6日的会议之后，欧佩克及其成员国宣布，他们不同意将即将到期的减产协议延期。EIA不再期待欧佩克+能采取积极的生产管理来平衡全球石油市场。EIA将欧佩克液体燃料产量预测从2月STEO上调至2020年15万桶/天，2021年为20万桶/天。EIA预计，欧佩克第二季和第三季原油日产量平均为2910万桶，高于第一季的2870万桶。尽管在2019年全球石油日产量超过1亿桶的情况下，这一增幅相对较小，但这一产量水平与近期的产量目标相比有显著变化，近期的目标是将全球库存保持在近五年(2015 - 19年)平均水平附近。
在最近的STEO预测中，EIA根据需求和非欧佩克供应的变化，调整了欧佩克液体燃料总供应的预期，以维持全球库存处于或接近5年平均水平。在3月份的报告中，EIA不再假设欧佩克的产量水平将遵循这种模式，该机构目前预计到2020年将有大量库存增加。
在石油需求低迷的情况下，欧佩克的目标产量水平非常不确定，而实际产量水平将对原油价格产生重大影响。由于欧佩克的剩余产能超过200万桶/天，欧佩克成员国的产量可能远远超过EIA当前的预估水平，这将导致更大规模的库存增加，并对油价构成下行压力。
另一方面，高于预期的原油生产中断可能会减少供应，并给价格带来上行压力。自2019年12月以来，利比亚原油日产量下降了100万桶，EIA估计利比亚2月份的平均日产量为15万桶。2月份，欧佩克意外减产384万桶/天，减产国家包括科威特、尼日利亚和沙特阿拉伯。
邹勤 摘译自 油田技术
原文如下：
EIA: OPEC shift to maintain market share will cause global inventory increases and lower prices
Markets for oil, as well as other commodities and equities, have experienced significant volatility and price declines since the final week in February amid concerns over the economic effects of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). More recently, markets fell after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partners failed to reach an agreement to continue crude oil production cuts. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has focused on several underlying assumptions about OPEC’s posture regarding targeted production output and what effect it may have on global oil balances and prices.
In its March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average US$43/bbl in 2020, down from an average of US$64/bbl in 2019. For 2020, EIA expects prices will average $37/bbl during the second quarter and rise to US$43/bbl during the second half of the year. EIA forecasts that Brent prices will rise to an average of US$55/bbl in 2021 as a result of declining global oil inventories putting upward pressure on prices. EIA expects that global liquid fuels inventories will grow by an average of 1 million bpd in 2020 after falling by about 0.1 million bpd in 2019 and that inventory builds will be largest in the first half of 2020, rising at a rate of 1.7 million bpd.
After the 6 March meeting, OPEC and partner countries announced that they did not agree to extend production cuts beyond those currently expiring 31 March 2020. EIA no longer expects active production management to target balanced global oil markets among OPEC members and partner countries.
Because of the outcome of the March 6 OPEC meeting, EIA increased its OPEC liquid fuels production forecast by 150 000 bpd in 2020 and by 200 000 bpd in 2021 from the February STEO. EIA expects OPEC crude oil production will average 29.1 million bpd in the second and third quarters of 2020, up from 28.7 million bpd in the first quarter. Although this growth is a relatively small increase in a market where global production exceeded 100 million bpd in 2019, this production level represents a marked change from recent production targets that were focused on keeping global inventories near the five-year (2015 - 19) average.
In recent STEO forecasts, EIA adjusted the outlook for OPEC total liquids supply based on changes in demand and non-OPEC supply to maintain global inventories that were at or near the five-year average. In the March STEO, EIA no longer assumes that OPEC production levels will follow such a pattern and now expects significant inventory builds through 2020.
Production levels targeted by OPEC amid low oil demand are very uncertain, and realized levels will have a significant effect on crude oil prices. Because OPEC surplus capacity is more than 2.0 million bpd, member countries could produce far more than EIA currently forecasts, which would lead to larger inventory builds and put downward pressure on prices.
On the other hand, higher-than-expected crude oil production outages could reduce supply and put upward pressure on prices. Crude oil production in Libya has declined by 1 million bpd since December 2019, and EIA estimates February production in Libya averaged 150,000 bpd. Total unplanned OPEC production outages averaged 3.84 million bpd in February and included additional outages in Kuwait, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia.
