石油设备网讯 据油价网2022年12月14日报道，最近几周，印度和中东地区的石油消费量意外上升，促使国际能源署(IEA)上调了今年和明年的全球石油需求增长预测。
IEA周三（12月14日）在其12月石油市场报告中表示，尽管预计今年第四季度全球石油日需求量比2021年同期减少11万桶，但近期非经合组织地区的石油消费数据表明，需求比此前预期的更有弹性。
IEA目前预计，今年全球石油日需求量将增加230万桶，比11月报告预期的增幅每天高出14万桶。预计2023年全球石油日需求量将增加170万桶，比11月报告的估计平均每天上调了10万桶。IEA称，明年全球石油日需求量将达到1.016亿桶。
IEA说，“尽管全球石油需求出现季节性放缓，宏观经济逆风持续，但最近的石油消费数据出人意料地出现了上行。这在非经合组织地区尤其明显，包括印度和中东地区。”
IEA补充称：“主要消费国强劲的轻油使用量超过了欧洲和亚洲疲弱的石化产品交货量。”
在供应方面，IEA估计11月份全球石油日供应量将减少19万桶至1.017亿桶，打破了持续五个月的上升趋势，这是因为沙特阿拉伯和其他海湾产油国减产，作为欧佩克+协议的一部分。
IEA表示：“由于欧盟对原油进口的禁令和七国集团(G7)的价格上限生效，预计下个月供应量将出现更大幅度的下跌。”
欧佩克在周二公布的月度报告中，维持其全球石油需求增长预估不变，预计今年和明年分别为日增250万桶和220万桶。但欧佩克警告称：“由于2022年接近尾声，近期全球经济增长放缓及其深远影响正变得相当明显。预计2023年仍将充满许多不确定性，需要保持警惕和谨慎。”
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
IEA Raises Oil Demand Outlook As Consumption Surprises To The Upside
Oil consumption in India, and the Middle East has surprised to the upside in recent weeks, prompting the International Energy Agency (IEA) to revise up its oil demand growth forecast for both this year and next.
Despite an expected fourth-quarter contraction of global oil demand by 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to the same period of 2021, recent data on consumption in non-OECD regions has pointed to more resilient demand than expected earlier, the IEA said on Wednesday in its Oil Market Report for December.
The agency now sees global oil demand growing by 2.3 million bpd this year, up by 140,000 bpd compared to the growth expected in last month’s report. Demand growth in 2023 is expected at 1.7 million bpd, an upward revision of 100,000 bpd compared to the November estimates. Next year, global oil demand is set to reach 101.6 million bpd, the IEA said.
“Despite the seasonal slowdown in world oil demand and continued macro-economic headwinds, recent oil consumption data have surprised to the upside. This was especially apparent in non-OECD regions, including India and the Middle East,” noted the agency.
“Strong gasoil use in key consuming countries outweighs weak European and Asian petrochemical deliveries,” the IEA added.
In supply, the IEA estimates that global oil supply fell by 190,000 bpd to 101.7 million bpd in November, breaking a five-month uptrend, as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers reduced output as part of the OPEC+ pact.
“A steeper drop is expected next month as the EU ban on crude imports and the G7 price cap take effect,” the IEA said.
In its monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC left its global oil demand growth estimates unchanged, expecting growth of 2.5 million bpd this year and 2.2 million bpd next year. But the cartel warned that “As the year 2022 draws to a close, the recent global economic growth slowdown with all its far-reaching implications is becoming quite evident. The year 2023 is expected to remain surrounded by many uncertainties, mandating vigilance and caution.”
