石油设备网讯 据彭博新闻社报道，根据加拿大蒙特利尔银行资本市场公布的最新数据，二叠纪盆地超过三分之二的优质土地已经被钻探，生产商正在寻求比以往更多的钻井许可证，以期在米德兰及其13万居民居住的地下钻探更深的井。
分析人士表示，二叠纪盆地可能在5年内达到石油产量稳定期。在二叠纪盆地的两个主要区域，生产商每钻一口新井，每英尺进尺的产油量都在减少。埃克森美孚公司、雪佛龙公司和德文能源公司的产量指导显示，美国页岩产量的增长已处于预期的低端。
能源数据分析公司Enverus公布的统计数据显示，在过去10年里，以二叠纪盆地为首的美国页岩提供了90%的全球石油产量增长。这使美国超越沙特阿拉伯成为世界最大的石油生产国。
页岩产量放缓意味着世界不能再依赖美国作为其摇摆不定的石油供应国，能够迅速增加或减少产量以缓和动荡的市场。在地缘政治冲突扰乱石油和天然气供应之际，拜登政府一方面试图控制油价，另一方面又将更多控制力交给欧佩克。
美国银行大宗商品研究主管弗朗西斯科·布兰奇表示：“美国供应已经大幅放缓，这让欧佩克很放心地进入并保持价格高企，因为他们不像过去那样害怕美国页岩。”
由于新的水力压裂技术将原本被认为是枯竭的油田改造成了地球上最令人向往的探区，二叠纪盆地大约10年前进入了公众的视野。
但在疫情开始时，美国的页岩产量大幅下降，目前仍比2020年初创下的1300万桶/天的纪录低约100万桶/天。根据Enverus公布的统计数据，尽管今年原油均价超过每桶90美元，远高于生产商盈亏平衡所需的水平，明年美国的页岩日产量的增长可能在56万桶左右。
劳动力短缺和设备成本的飙升，以及向股东返还更多现金的压力，在一定程度上导致了美国钻井公司的克制。利率上升可能预示着美国页岩生产商寻求为温和增长计划融资的廉价资金时代的终结。
李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社
原文如下：
Oil production plateaus in the Permian push producers to drill deeper
With over two-thirds of the Permian’s premium land now drilled, producers are seeking more permits than ever to burrow beneath Midland and its 130,000 residents, according to BMO Capital Markets.
Analysts say the Permian could reach a production plateau within five years. Producers in the Permian’s two main zones are pumping less oil per foot drilled in each new well. Output guidance from Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and Devon Energy Corp. has shown that U.S. shale growth is coming in at the low end of expectations.
U.S. shale, led by the Permian, has provided 90% of global oil output growth in the past decade, according to research firm Enverus. It made the U.S. the biggest producer ahead of Saudi Arabia.
A shale slowdown means the world can no longer rely on the U.S. to be its swing oil supplier, capable of ramping up or down quickly to temper a volatile market. It complicates the Biden administration’s efforts to tame pump prices while handing more power back to OPEC as the war upends oil and gas supply.
“U.S. supply is already materially slowing down,” said Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Bank of America Corp. “It’s giving OPEC a lot of comfort to come in and keep prices elevated because they don’t fear US shale like they did in the past.”
The Permian Basin sprang into the public consciousness about a decade ago as new fracking techniques transformed what was thought to be a depleted oil field into some of the most desirable acreages on the planet.
But U.S. output tumbled at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and is still about 1 million bpd below the record 13 million reached in early 2020. Next year, growth is likely to be around 560,000 bpd, according to Enverus. That’s despite crude prices averaging more than $90 a barrel this year, far above what producers need to break even.
Skyrocketing costs for labor and equipment, as well as pressure to return more cash to shareholders, are partly to blame for drillers’ restraint. Rising interest rates likely herald the end of cheap money for shale producers looking to finance even modest growth plans.
