石油设备网讯 惠誉评级伦敦2022年12月12日发布报告认为,在碳氢化合物价格放缓、高成本通胀及一些国家征收暴利税影响下,全球石油天然气行业的高收益和现金流并未受其影响,惠誉评级对此给出了中性的看法。该领域相关公司在2023年的财务业绩表现,将与2022年持平,并明显强于中期。
由于石油和天然气价格下跌,预计2023年,惠誉评级所观察的石油和天然气生产商累计息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)和运营资金(FFO)将减少15%至20%。但由于营运资本波动,运营现金流量会保持不变。尽管预计约25%的公司将股息和资本支出增加10%以上,但全球投资组合的资本支出和股息合并将保持稳定。
大多数公司(2023年为75%,而2021—2022年为65%至70%,2019—2020年为50%以下)将报告正自由现金流。许多公司将继续通过股票回购来补充股息支付,这将占该行业股东分配总额的15%至20%。
约80%的石油和天然气生产商的净息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)杠杆率将保持稳定或下降,杠杆率中值将保持在1.9倍,这将低于历史衡量标准(例如,2019年杠杆率中值为2.5倍)。基于杠杆相关评级的敏感性,大多数公司利润将有很大的上升空间。
可能对需求产生实质性影响的短期因素,可以归因于全球经济增长放缓及许多发达国家的经济衰退。然而,OPEC+的供应政策可能会保持谨慎,而石油市场的闲置产能可能会因产能大国供应收紧而萎缩。能源转型需要一个较为长期的考量过程——其加速可能会导致需求和油价的下降,而其放缓加上投资不足也将相应推高油价。
朱亚菲 编译自 惠誉网站
原文如下:
Global Oil & Gas Sector’s Profits are High Despite Windfall Taxes
Fitch Ratings-London-12 December 2022: Fitch Ratings’ neutral sector outlook for global oil and gas is based on still high earnings and cash flow generation despite moderating hydrocarbon prices, high cost inflation and windfall taxes introduced by some countries. Financial performance of companies in the sector in 2023 will remain comparable to that in 2022 and significantly stronger than in the mid-cycle.
We expect the cumulative EBITDA and funds from operations (FFO) of Fitch-rated oil and gas producers to reduce by 15%-20% in 2023 due to lower oil and gas prices, but operating cash flows should remain unchanged due to working-capital fluctuations. Combined capex and dividends will be stable across the global portfolio, although we expect around 25% of companies to increase dividends and capex by more than 10%.
Most companies (75% in 2023 compared with 65%-70% in 2021-2022 and below 50% in 2019-2020) should report positive free cash flow. Many will continue to complement dividend payments with share buy-backs, which will account for 15%-20% of total shareholder distributions in the sector.
The net EBITDA leverage of about 80% oil and gas producers will either remain stable or decrease, and the median leverage will remain at 1.9x, which is low by historical standards (for example, the 2019 median leverage was 2.5x). Most companies will have significant headroom under our leverage-related rating sensitivities.
Near-term factors that could materially affect demand include slower economic growth globally and a recession in many developed countries. However, OPEC+’s supply policies are likely to remain cautious, while spare capacity in the oil market could shrink because of reduced supplies. The energy transition is a significant long-term consideration – its acceleration could lead to lower demand and oil prices, while its slowdown, in combination with underinvestment, could increase prices.