组成海湾合作委员会的六个国家都是石油和天然气超级玩家，由于石油和天然气价格高涨，它们今年有望获得罕见的预算盈余
为了使其经济多样化，这些国家现在正将这些额外的资金投入清洁能源项目
沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋是引领潮流的两个国家，它们投资于太阳能、风能、氢能、核能，甚至是将废物变为能源的项目
石油设备网讯 据油价网12月21日报道，如果说“组成海湾合作委员会（GCC）的六个国家生活和呼吸着碳氢化合物”是毫不夸张的。大约60年前，沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国（UAE）、科威特、卡塔尔、巴林和阿曼的普通城市可能只有几千人；现在，由于该地区丰富的石油和天然气资源，许多城市已经转变为世界级的大都市。仅沙特阿拉伯就拥有世界已探明石油储量的16%，也是世界第二大石油生产国，占全球产量的15%。
在今年，由于石油和天然气价格高涨，沙特阿拉伯和其他几个中东国家报告了罕见的预算盈余。根据王国财政部发布的初步估计，该国2022年的盈余为1020亿里亚尔（270亿美元），占其国内生产总值（GDP）的2.6%。2022年，总收入将达到约1.234万亿里亚尔，而支出约为1.132万亿里亚尔。
但情况并非一直如此。多年来，大多数海湾合作委员会国家在能源价格低迷的情况下，一直在严重的预算赤字下煎熬。事实上，就在去年，标普全球评级公司估计，海湾合作委员会成员国的政府赤字将在2020年至2023年期间累计达到约4900亿美元，而政府债务将在2021年激增1000亿美元，创历史新高。
当然，这些国家的情况比担心的要好得多，但他们仍然敏锐地意识到他们的经济已经变得多么依赖石油和天然气。
正是由于这个原因，沙特阿拉伯及其海湾合作委员会的同行们已经接受了能源转型，现在正在大力投资于可再生能源。根据BCG的年度并购报告，所有并购交易中的10.3%是绿色能源交易，绿色并购活动自2001年以来已经翻了两番。BCG表示，中东地区在2022年前三季度记录了283宗绿色交易，比去年同期增长了16%，总价值为238亿美元。该报告预计，尽管宏观经济条件不利，但环境因素将继续推动越来越多的交易。
"绿色交易在该地区非常热门。中东地区可持续发展交易的飙升是既定的国家转型计划的明确结果，该计划为各国在实现净零排放的道路上寻求多样化的经济产出。BCG董事总经理兼高级合伙人Ihab Khalil表示，随着该地区继续成为合作和多样化的中心，绿色并购也将取得成果。
BCG的分析显示，尽管绿色交易通常会有很大的溢价，但在全球范围内，绿色交易在宣布时以及在随后的两年内，实际上比非绿色交易创造了更多价值。报告显示，非绿色交易的两年相对股东总回报率（rTSR）中值（-0.55%）超过了绿色交易（-2.38%）。此外，通过分析交易公告前后三天的累积异常回报率（CAR），BCG发现与环境相关的交易的CAR中值（1.0%）明显略高于非绿色交易（0.0%）。
在所有海湾国家中，沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋在清洁能源投资方面处于领先地位。让我们深入了解一下这两个国家究竟是如何重新制定战略并将如何其经济从单一石油支撑中走到今天多元化的。
沙特阿拉伯：太阳能、风能和氢能
尽管沙特能源大臣萨勒曼去年在告诉彭博新闻社，沙特已经制定了最雄心勃勃的清洁能源蓝图之一：王储穆罕默德的《2030年愿景》经济计划。
在该经济计划中，沙特阿拉伯已经设定了一个目标，即在本世纪末开发约60吉瓦的可再生能源能力，与之相比，燃烧天然气或石油的发电厂的装机容量约为80吉瓦。
到目前为止，虽然沙特阿拉伯在部署可再生能源方面只取得了有限进展，只有300兆瓦的公用事业规模的太阳能正在运行，但400兆瓦的风力发电正在建设中。
沙特拥有广袤的阳光和稳定的红海之风，是可再生能源发电的首选之地。去年，沙特阿拉伯的国家石油公司沙特阿美宣布启动美国以外最大的页岩气开发项目，在天然气市场上引起了震动。沙特阿美说，它计划在未来几年内花费1100亿美元来开发Jafurah气田，该气田估计拥有200万亿立方英尺的天然气。这家国有公司希望在2024年开始从Jafurah生产天然气，并在2036年达到22亿立方英尺/天的销售量，以及相关的每天4.25亿立方英尺的乙烷。
两年前，沙特阿美宣布，与其将所有这些天然气冷却并作为液化天然气出口，不如将其转化为一种更清洁的燃料：蓝色氢气。
沙特阿美告诉投资者，沙特阿美已经放弃了发展液化天然气领域的直接计划，而选择了氢气。沙特的近期计划是生产足够的天然气供国内使用，以停止在发电厂中燃烧石油，并将剩余部分转化为氢气。蓝色氢气是由天然气通过蒸汽甲烷重整（SMR）或自动热重整（ATR）制成的，所产生的二氧化碳被捕获，然后储存起来。由于温室气体被捕获，这减轻了对地球的环境影响。
2020年，沙特阿美进行了世界上第一次蓝色氨气运输——从沙特阿拉伯到日本。日本——这个国家的多山地形和极端地震活动使其不适合发展可持续的可再生能源——正在寻找可靠的氢燃料供应商，沙特阿拉伯和澳大利亚在其候选名单上。
沙特政府还在建设一个价值50亿美元的绿色氢气工厂，在2025年开放时将为计划中的Neom大城市提供动力。该氢气工厂被称为Helios绿色燃料，将利用太阳能和风能产生4吉瓦的清洁能源，用于生产绿色氢气。
亮点就是Helios很快就能生产出比石油更便宜的绿色氢气。
彭博新能源财经（BNEF）估计，到2030年，Helios的成本可能达到每公斤1.5美元，比每公斤5美元的绿色氢气的平均成本要便宜得多，甚至比裂解天然气制成的灰色氢气还要便宜。沙特阿拉伯在绿色氢气业务方面享有严重的竞争优势，这要归功于其永久的阳光、风力和大片的未使用土地。
德国已经说过它需要“海量”的绿色氢气，并希望沙特将成为一个关键的供应商。两年前，德国政府承诺在氢气技术方面投资90亿欧元（约102亿美元），以实现经济脱碳和减少二氧化碳排放。政府提议到2030年建立5000兆瓦的电解能力，并在接下来的十年里到2040年再建立5000兆瓦的电解能力，以生产燃料氢。
这个欧洲经济强国已经意识到它无法单独做到这一点，将需要像沙特这样的低成本供应商，特别是在该国遭遇一系列能源困境后，它将加倍履行其绿色能源承诺。
阿联酋：核能、风能与“变废为能”
去年，阿联酋核能公司（ENEC）宣布该国有史以来的第一座核电站——巴拉卡1号机组投入使用。
这座1400兆瓦的核电站自12月初达到100%的发电量以来，已成为阿联酋最大的单一发电站，现在正“全天候提供持续、可靠和可持续的电力”。ENEC说，Barakah 1号机组“现在正引领阿联酋任何行业迄今为止最大的去碳化努力”。
跟随沙特阿拉伯的脚步，阿联酋也在为能源转型打下坚实的基础。
阿布扎比主权财富基金穆巴达拉的清洁能源部门马斯达尔公司，在2021年4月签署了一项在阿塞拜疆开发太阳能项目的协议后，正在中亚地区建设可再生能源能力。
自2006年成立以来，马斯达尔已经在30个不同的国家建立了可再生能源资产组合，已经投资约200亿美元，开发了11吉瓦的太阳能、风能和废物发电能力。
现在，马斯达尔表示，它打算将在国外获得的经验应用到国内的清洁能源能力开发上。
马斯达尔的El-Ramahi说：“我们在国际业务中开发的解决方案肯定会在阿联酋这里得到应用。”
例如，马斯达尔公司计划通过使用最新的三类涡轮机开发国内风电场来加强阿联酋相对薄弱的风力资源，这些涡轮机甚至能够从低风速中获取电力。
此外，该公司还在建造一个价值11亿美元的设施，在世界最大的垃圾发电厂之一燃烧垃圾来发电。一旦完成，这些工厂将焚烧该国每年产生的几乎三分之二的家庭垃圾。
尽管通常不被认为是一种清洁能源，但根据联合国环境规划署（UNEP）的说法，现代垃圾发电厂要清洁得多。通过使用先进的技术，这些工厂能够在极高的温度下燃烧废物，从而确保完全燃烧，同时任务经过特殊处理，留下最小数量的有毒副产品，如烟道灰。事实上，测试表明，某些垃圾发电烟囱排放的空气可以比流入的空气更干净。
曹海斌 编译自 油价网
The Middle East Oil And Gas Nations Pouring Billions Into Clean Energy
The six countries that make up the Gulf Cooperative Council are oil and gas giants that are on track to post rare budget surpluses this year thanks to high oil and gas prices.
In an effort to diversify their economies, these countries are now plowing this extra money into clean energy projects.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the two countries leading the way, investing in solar, wind, hydrogen, nuclear, and even waste-to-energy projects.
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To say that the six countries that make up the Gulf Cooperative Council (GCC) live and breathe hydrocarbons is hardly an exaggeration. about 60years ago, the average city in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman was home to maybe a few thousand people; fast forward to the present and many cities have transformed into world-class metropolises thanks to the region’s vast oil and gas riches. Saudi Arabia alone owns 16% of the world's proven oil reserves and is also the world's second-largest oil producer, responsible for 15% of global output.
In the current year, Saudi Arabia and several other Middle East nations have reported rare budget surpluses thanks to high oil and gas prices. According to the kingdom’s finance ministry, releasing what it said were preliminary estimates, the country’s 2022 surplus clocked in at 102 billion riyals ($27 billion), good for 2.6% of its gross domestic product (GDP). For 2022, total revenue will have hit around 1.234 trillion riyals, against spending of around 1.132 trillion riyals.
But it has not always been this way. For years, most GCC nations have languished under heavy budget deficits amid low energy prices. Indeed, just last year, S&P Global Ratings estimated that GCC central government deficits would reach about $490 billion cumulatively between 2020 and 2023 while government debt would surge by a record-high $100 billion in 2021.
Of course, things have turned out much better than feared for these nations, but they remain acutely aware of just how dependent on oil and gas their economies have become.
It’s for this reason that Saudi Arabia and its GCC peers have embraced the energy transition and are now investing heavily in renewable energy. According to BCG’s annual M&A report, 10.3 % of all M&A transactions are green energy deals, with green M&A activity having quadrupled since 2001. BCG says that the Middle East recorded 283 green deals in the first three quarters of 2022, marking an increase of 16% from the same period last year with a total value of $23.8 billion. The report foresees environmental considerations continuing to drive an increasing number of deals, despite unfavorable macroeconomic conditions.
“Green deals are very hot in the region. Soaring sustainability transactions in the Middle East are a clear outcome of established national transformation programs seeking out diverse economic outputs for countries on their path to net zero. As the region continues grounding itself as a hub where collaboration and diversification can bear fruit, so will green mergers and acquisitions,” Ihab Khalil, Managing Director, and Senior Partner, BCG, has declared.
BCG’s analysis has revealed that despite the substantial premium they often command, green deals globally actually create more value than non-green deals upon announcement and over the ensuing two years. According to the report, the median two-year relative total shareholder return (rTSR) of non-green deals (-0.55%) exceeds that of green deals (-2.38%). Further, by analyzing cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for three-day periods before and after a deal announcement, BCG found that the median CAR of environmental-related transactions (1.0%) is significantly marginally higher than that of non-green deals (0.0%).
Of all the Gulf nations, it is Saudi Arabia and the UAE that are leading the way when it comes to clean energy investments. Let’s delve into exactly how these two countries are restrategizing and diversifying their economies away from oil.
Saudi Arabia: Solar, Wind, and Hydrogen
Although Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman last year made waves in the oil community after telling Bloomberg News that Saudi Arabia intends to pump every last drop of oil and intends to be the last man standing, Saudi Arabia has crafted one of the most ambitious clean energy blueprints: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 economic plan.
In the economic plan, Saudi Arabia has set a target to develop ~60 GW of renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade, which compares with an installed capacity of roughly 80 GW of power plants burning gas or oil.
So far, Saudi Arabia has only made limited progress deploying renewables with just 300 MW of utility-scale solar in operation while 400 MW of wind power is under construction.
With its sun-scorched expanses and steady Red Sea breezes, Saudi Arabia is prime real estate for renewable energy generation. Last year, Saudi Arabia’s national oil company Saudi Aramco sent shockwaves through the natural gas markets after it announced that it was kicking off the biggest shale gas development outside of the United States. Saudi Aramco said it plans to spend $110 billion over the next couple of years to develop the Jafurah gas field, which is estimated to hold 200 trillion cubic feet of gas. The state-owned company hopes to start natural gas production from Jafurah in 2024 and reach 2.2 Bcf/d of sales gas by 2036 with an associated 425 million cubic feet per day of ethane.
Two years ago, Aramco announced that instead of chilling all that gas and exporting it as LNG, it will convert it into a much cleaner fuel: Blue hydrogen.
Saudi Aramco told investors that Aramco has abandoned immediate plans to develop its LNG sector in favor of hydrogen. Nasser said that the kingdom’s immediate plan is to produce enough natural gas for domestic use to stop burning oil in its power plants and convert the remainder into hydrogen. Blue hydrogen is made from natural gas either by Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) or Auto Thermal Reforming (ATR) with the CO2 generated captured and then stored. As the greenhouse gasses are captured, this mitigates the environmental impacts on the planet.
In 2020, Aramco made the world’s first blue ammonia shipment--from Saudi Arabia to Japan. Japan--a country whose mountainous terrain and extreme seismic activity render it unsuitable for the development of sustainable renewable energy--is looking for dependable suppliers of hydrogen fuel with Saudi Arabia and Australia on its shortlist.
The Saudi government is also building a $5 billion green hydrogen plant that will power the planned megacity of Neom when it opens in 2025. Dubbed Helios Green Fuels, the hydrogen plant will use solar and wind energy to generate 4GW of clean energy that will be used to produce green hydrogen.
But here’s the main kicker: Helios could soon produce green hydrogen that’s cheaper than oil.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) estimates that Helios’ costs could reach $1.50 per kilogram by 2030, way cheaper than the average cost of green hydrogen at $5 per kilogram and even cheaper than gray hydrogen made from cracking natural gas. Saudi Arabia enjoys a serious competitive advantage in the green hydrogen business thanks to its perpetual sunshine, wind, and vast tracts of unused land.
Germany has said it needs “enormous” volumes of green hydrogen, and hopes Saudi Arabia will become a key supplier. Two years ago, Germany’s cabinet committed to invest €9B (about $10.2B) in hydrogen technology in a bid to decarbonize the economy and cut CO2 emissions. The government has proposed to build an electrolysis capacity of 5,000 MW by 2030 and another 5,000 MW by 2040 over the following decade to produce fuel hydrogen.
The European economic powerhouse has realized it cannot do this alone and will require low-cost suppliers like Saudi Arabia especially as it doubles down on its green energy commitments following a series of devastating floods in the country.
UAE: Nuclear, Wind, and Waste-to-Energy
Last year, the Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC) announced the commissioning of the country’s first-ever nuclear power plant--the Barakah unit 1.
The 1,400-megawatt nuclear plant has become the single largest electricity generator in the UAE since reaching 100% power in early December, and is now providing "constant, reliable and sustainable electricity around the clock."ENEC says Barakah unit 1 is "now leading the largest decarbonization effort of any industry in the UAE to date."
Following in the footsteps of Saudi Arabia, the UAE is also laying a strong foundation for the energy transition.
Masdar, the clean energy arm of Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala, is building renewable capacity in central Asia after signing a deal in April 2021 to develop a solar project in Azerbaijan.
Since its inception in 2006, Masdar has built a portfolio of renewable energy assets in 30 different countries, having invested about $20 bn to develop 11 GW of solar, wind, and waste-to-energy power generation capacity.
And now Masdar says it intends to apply the lessons gleaned abroad to develop clean energy capacity back at home.
“Solutions we have developed in our international operations will definitely have applications here in the UAE”, says Masdar’s El-Ramahi.
For instance, Masdar plans to bolster the UAE’s comparatively weak wind resources by developing domestic wind farms using the latest class three turbines that are able to harness electricity even from low wind speeds.
Further, the company is also constructing a $1.1 bn facility that will burn garbage to generate power in one of the world’s largest waste-to-energy plants. once complete, the plants will incinerate almost two-thirds of the household waste the country generates every year.
Though not typically considered a clean energy source, modern waste-to-energy plants are much cleaner as per the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP). By using advanced technologies, these plants are able to burn waste at extremely high temperatures thus ensuring complete combustion while missions are specially treated, leaving minimal amounts of toxic byproducts like flue ash. In fact, tests have shown that the air emitted by certain waste-to-energy chimneys can be cleaner than the air flowing in.
