油价目前在一年的低点附近徘徊，尽管供应问题持续存在，但经济衰退的担忧拖累了油价
在最近的报告周中，资金经理们提高了他们在WTI的净多头头寸——这是一个多月以来第一次发生这种情况
明年亚洲需求可能反弹，石油供应可能大幅下降，这给石油市场增加了大量的上行风险
石油设备网讯 据油价网12月21日报道，经济衰退的担忧使油价在一年来的低点徘徊，假期前的交易量很小，但明年油价的上行势头可能已经开始。
对冲基金和其他资金经理在11月的出逃之后，已经减缓了对两个最重要的原油期货合约的抛售。
根据盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen根据交易所的每周交易员承诺报告所做的估计，在截至12月13日的一周内，资金经理还将其看涨布伦特和WTI的合并押注削减至2020年4月以来的最低水平。
然而，在最近的报告周，投资组合经理略微提高了他们对美国基准原油WTI的净多头头寸——看涨和看跌押注之间的差异。这是一个多月以来，对冲基金首次在一周内对交易量最大的石油合约之一实际增加的多头多于空头。
但布伦特原油上周的净多头头寸降至26个月来最低。
盛宝银行的汉森指出：COT报告连续第二周显示，WTI净买入4.4万手，布伦特净多头减少5.6万手，至8.94万手，创26个月以来的新低。
根据该银行的估计，布伦特原油的多空比已降至仅为2:1，这表明在比过去一年大部分时间低得多的入市价格水平上，可能会有重新看涨的上升空间。
虽然近期的前景和情绪仍然偏向于下行，因为货币紧缩政策和出现的库存激增，但明年晚些时候的前景比几周前更加看涨。
原油价格继续体现着，要平衡围绕需求前景的各种说法是很困难的。盛宝银行的战略团队周二表示：“随着疫情浪潮的蔓延，亚洲需求面临着短期的阻力，但由于当局仍然致力于推动消费复苏，中期内可能会出现反弹。”
美国宣布开始为补充战略石油储备（SPR）而进行原油回购，也为油价在70美元处设置了坚实的底线。
OANDA美洲区高级市场分析师Ed Moya周二表示：“石油市场在70美元的水平上有巨大的支持，因为美国可能会在一段时间内重新填充战略石油储备。”
交易员和资金经理在亚洲市场重新开放后并没有涌向石油，这表明市场意识到，疫情情况在好转之前会变得更糟，至少在几个月内亚洲需求不会激增。
然后是欧盟石油禁运和对产能大国原油价格设置上限，这将在明年初扰乱和收紧市场。
虽然产能大国的石油供应到目前为止保持得比预期的要好，但“亚洲市场吸收更多的产能大国石油的能力可能是有限的”，ING战略家在本周的2023年展望中说。
因此，ING认为产能大国的供应量在2023年第一季度每年下降160万桶/日到180万桶/日之间。
“我们预计今年的赤字会越来越大，这表明油价应该在目前的水平上交易更高。我们目前预测ICE布伦特油价在2023年平均为104美元/桶，但考虑到地缘政治局势和全球经济的走向，我们预测的不确定性很高。”ING说。
国际能源署（IEA）不排除一旦市场在明年2月之后的某个时间点感受到对产能大国原油和产品的所有禁运的全部影响，油价将再次反弹。
国际能源署在其12月份的石油市场报告中说：“随着世界度过这个冬季，并在2023年第二季度走向更紧的石油平衡，不能排除另一次价格反弹。”
曹海斌 编译自 油价网
Upside Risks For Oil Are Growing
Oil prices are currently lingering near one-year lows after recession fears dragged prices down despite continued supply worries.
In the latest reporting week, money managers raised their net long position in WTI - the first time that has happened in more than a month.
The potential of a rebound in Chinese demand and a significant decline in Russian supply next year is adding plenty of upside risk to oil markets.
Recession fears have left oil prices lingering at a one-year-low with slim trades ahead of the holidays, but the upside momentum for oil prices next year may have already started.
Hedge funds and other money managers have slowed the sell-off in the two most important crude futures contracts following an exodus in November.
In the week to December 13, money managers also cut their combined bullish Brent and WTI bets to the lowest level since April 2020, according to estimates by Saxo Bank’s Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, based on the weekly Commitment of Traders report from exchanges.
However, portfolio managers slightly raised their net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, in the latest reporting week. This was the first time in more than a month that hedge funds actually added more longs than shorts in one week in one of the most traded petroleum contracts.
But Brent Crude saw the net long position drop last week to the lowest in 26 months.
“For a second week the COT report showed a divergence between WTI where 4.4k lots were net bought and Brent suffered a 5.6k lot reduction in the net long to 89.4k lots, a 26-month low,” Saxo Bank’s Hansen noted.
The longs-to-shorts ratio in Brent Crude has dipped to just 2:1, according to the bank’s estimates, suggesting there could be an upside for renewed bullish positioning at much lower entry-point price levels than in most of the past year.
While the near-term outlook and sentiment are still tilted to the downside with money-tightening policies and restrictions were eased, the outlook for later next year is more bullish than just a few weeks ago.
“Crude oil prices continue to find it challenging to balance the varied narrative around the demand outlook. Asian demand faces short-term headwinds as the Covid wave spreads but is likely poised for a rebound in the medium term as authorities remain committed to driving up consumption recovery,” Saxo Bank’s strategy team said on Tuesday.
The U.S. announcing the start of crude repurchasing for refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) also puts a firm floor under oil prices at $70.
“The oil market has tremendous support at the $70 level as the US will likely be refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for a while,” Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst, The Americas, at OANDA, said on Tuesday.
Traders and money managers haven’t flocked back to oil after the Chinese reopening, signaling that the market is aware that the Covid situation will get worse before it gets better, and there won’t be a surge in Chinese demand for at least a few months. However, the authorities say that they will support the economy and consumption through the Covid wave.
Then there is the Russian oil embargo and the price cap on the crude, which are set to disrupt and tighten the market early next year.
While the bigger country's oil supply has held so far better than expected, “The ability of Asiato absorb a still more significant amount of its oil is likely limited,” ING strategists said in a 2023 outlook this week.
As a result, ING sees its supply falling by between 1.6 million bpd and 1.8 million bpd annually in the first quarter of 2023.
“We expect a growing deficit over the course of the year, which suggests that oil prices should trade higher from current levels. We currently forecast ICE Brent to average US$104/bbl over 2023, but the uncertainty around our forecast is high given the geopolitical situation and the direction of the global economy,” ING said.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) doesn’t rule out another oil price rally once the market feels the full effect of all embargoes on Russian crude and products at some point after February next year.
“As we move through the winter months and towards a tighter oil balance in 2Q23, another price rally cannot be ruled out,” the IEA said in its Oil Market Report for December.
