石油设备网讯 据油价网2022年12月28日报道，布伦特原油价格自6月见顶以来一直大幅下跌，至今几乎回吐了全年涨幅。瑞士信贷表示，抛售还没有结束。
“市场仍然远低于55日移动均线和200日移动均线89.01和100.67，随着中期势头下降和全球增长担忧的逼近，我们认为可能会进一步走软。布伦特原油价格可能会在适当的时候进一步下跌至61.8%的回调位63.02美元，我们对更稳定的底部和盘整阶段的出现有更高的信心。”
不过，并非所有人都那么悲观。
加拿大投资管理公司Ninepoint Partners LP的合伙人兼高级投资组合经理埃里克·纳托尔对英国《金融邮报》表示，2023年油价将回到每桶100美元。分析师们表示，2022年阻碍油价上涨的许多不利因素，包括疫情封锁限制和几个国家政府协调发布的释放战略石油储备（SPR），到2023年将不复存在。再加上对石油和天然气的制裁，这应该会推高油价。他还预测，由于石油和天然气股票的高需求，能源板块的表现将继续优于其他市场板块。
纳托尔并不是唯一的看涨者。
上周，美国银行预测，在美联储温和转向以及亚洲成功重启经济的背景下，布伦特原油价格可能很快突破每桶90美元。
美国银行预测，布伦特原油价格目前为每桶83.89美元，到2023年平均价格将达到每桶100美元，这要归功于亚洲市场重新开放后石油需求的复苏，以及产能大国每天供应量减少约100万桶。根据这家美国投资银行的说法，欧佩克+明年可能会全面实施200万桶/天的减产计划，以提振油价。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Credit Suisse Predicts $63 Oil
Brent crude prices have been on a sharp decline since peaking in June, nearly giving up all the year’s gains. And Credit Suisse says the selloff is not yet over.
“The market remains well below its 55-Day Moving Average and 200DMA at 89.01 and 100.67, and with medium-term momentum declining and global growth concerns looming, we think further weakness is likely to follow. Brent is likely in due course to see further downside towards the 61.8% retracement at 63.02, where we would have higher confidence of a more stable floor and for a consolidation phase to emerge.”
Not everybody is that bearish, though.
Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners LP, has told the Financial Post that oil prices will return to $100 per barrel in 2023. According to the analysts, many of the headwinds that have cut short the oil price rally this year, including Covid Block policy and the coordinated SPR releases by several governments, will no longer be there in 2023. Coupled with sanctions on oil and gas, this should elevate oil prices. He has also predicted that the energy sector will continue to outperform other market sectors due to high demand in oil and gas stocks.
Nutall is not the only bull here.
Last week, the Bank of America predicted that Brent could quickly go past $90 per barrel on the back of a dovish pivot in the U.S. Federal Reserve and a “successful” economic reopening by Asia.
BofA has forecast that Brent prices--currently trading at $83.89--will average $100/bbl in 2023 thanks to oil demand recovery on a post-COVID reopening coupled with a drop in supplies of about 1 million barrels per day (bpd). According to the investment bank, OPEC+ is likely to fully implement a 2 million bpd output cut in a bid to boost oil prices.
